A Region on Fire
Issue 56 - November 22, 2024 

International Criminal Court (ICC): Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and Mohammed Deif

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and Mohammed Deif. Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed al-Sinwar were not included because they were killed earlier. This ends the first round of international confrontation between the Court's judges and Israel, along with the United States, after several months of delay. The decision is expected to lead to more conflict with the international community, as the United States rejected it, and the U.S. Senate had threatened to sanction the judges if they went ahead. On the day the warrants were announced, the Israeli army bombed homes and a school in northern Gaza, killing 60 Palestinians, which was seen as another war crime. Israeli officials reacted strongly; Netanyahu called the decision anti-Semitic, and the Finance Minister suggested declaring Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank. Meanwhile, EU countries, some Arab nations, and international organizations said they would support the Court's decision, with some nations willing to enforce the arrest warrants



Ceasefire Talks in Lebanon

Israel leaked a different version of the ceasefire agreement than what Lebanon is discussing. The Israeli draft includes conditions that Lebanon disagrees with, linking Resolution 1701 (concerning the area south of the Litani River) with Resolution 1559 (about disarming militias, border control, and stopping arms trafficking throughout Lebanon). This disagreement is a key issue in the negotiations and is also a topic of debate within Lebanon. Many criticize that the talks are centered around Hezbollah's demands, sidelining Lebanese institutions and the majority opinion of Lebanese citizens


International Developments

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. They are being held responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Israeli military during the ongoing war in Gaza. The ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, requested the arrest warrants in May, but their issuance was delayed due to political pressure from Israel against the Court and Khan. Reuters also reported that the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif.
Reactions to the ICC decision include:

• The European Union's Foreign Affairs Commissioner, Josep Borrell, stated that the ICC's arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are not political and must be respected and enforced by all EU member states.
• The British Prime Minister emphasized that a two-state solution within a comprehensive peace agreement is the only way to resolve the crisis.
• Reuters reported that the Dutch Foreign Minister said the Netherlands is ready to carry out the ICC’s arrest order for Netanyahu.
• The French Foreign Ministry announced that France brings continued support to the ICC’s action, our reaction will align with those principles.
• Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister urged European countries to enforce the ICC’s arrest warrants.
• Amnesty International declared that no one, whether elected or not, is above international law.
• A former U.S. National Security Advisor under Trump warned of a strong response in January against the ICC and the United Nations.
• The Israeli Defense Minister condemned the arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant as a “moral stain” and anti-Semitic, undermining justice.
• Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir suggested that the response to the arrest orders should be imposing full Israeli sovereignty over all areas of the West Bank and increasing settlement activity.

Battlefield Developments in Lebanon

Israeli planes launched three airstrikes early Thursday on the southern suburbs of Beirut. These were preceded by three evacuation warnings in the Haret Hreik area. Israeli jets also attacked towns in the Tyre district in southern Lebanon after evacuation warnings, hitting a gathering point for paramedics in the town of Kfardounine in Bint Jbeil district. Airstrikes continued throughout the day in southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that "10 people, including three paramedics, were killed and 68 others injured in initial reports of Israeli strikes on several southern Lebanese towns."

Fighting intensified near the areas of Israeli incursion around the towns of Khiam and Ibl al-Saqi in the east, and Shama and al-Biyada in the west.

Hezbollah stated that it targeted an Israeli military gathering south of Khiam for the second time. In a statement, it said that its fighters used drones to attack a "logistics base for the Israeli Army's 146th Division east of Nahariya," confirming that the targets were hit. In the last few hours, the clashes resulted in the deaths of four Israeli soldiers, according to Israeli sources, while the Israeli army reported one soldier from the elite "Maglan" unit was killed, and 10 others were injured.

Movement to Syria reached record numbers, with a government report noting that since September 23, 385,000 Syrians and 225,000 Lebanese have entered Syria due to worsening security conditions.


Political Developments in Lebanon

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein continued his talks in Israel, where he arrived last night to mediate a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. According to Israeli Broadcasting Corporation, the main disagreement in the American proposal for de-escalation between Lebanon and Israel is about the membership of the monitoring team for implementing the agreement. The report noted that the U.S. and France would lead the monitoring team without objections from either side. However, Israel prefers the inclusion of "serious European countries," while Lebanon insists on having at least one Arab country represented.

Channel 12 in Israel reported that most details of the proposed ceasefire with Lebanon have been agreed upon, but a few unresolved issues could still block the agreement. They indicated that next week would be crucial for reaching a deal with Lebanon. A significant point of contention involves Israel’s freedom of military action in case of violations by Hezbollah. Israel demands the right to respond to any breaches and is seeking a side letter of assurance from Washington, supported by Western nations.

Israeli government sources have also highlighted a disagreement regarding how long the Israeli army would remain in southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire agreement.

In a response on a Lebanese TV channel, Hezbollah MP Ali Fayad said that Resolution 1701 had "buried" Resolution 1559, echoing the statement of Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri. He emphasized that the Lebanese government's stance prioritizes the provisions of the Taif Agreement. Regarding the disarmament of militias, Fayad stated that the official Lebanese position distinguishes between militias and the resistance, with the latter not subject to Resolution 1559. He also referenced a recent speech by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, highlighting a positive approach to other internal issues under discussion.

The former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt stated that Lebanon could no longer afford to remain a battleground for regional conflict and stressed the necessity of implementing Resolution 1701 and restricting weapons to the Lebanese army south of the Litani River.