A Region on Fire
Issue 37 - November 3, 2024 

Battlefield Developments in Lebanon

In the past 24 hours, 109 airstrikes targeted various areas, primarily in Nabatieh (57 strikes), South Lebanon (26), and Baalbek-Hermel (24). This raises the total number of recorded Israeli attacks since the conflict began to 11,876. About 20 villages were hit intensely, with multiple, simultaneous waves of airstrikes.
 

According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, these strikes have resulted in 71 people killed and 169 others injured in the past day. This brings the total death toll to 2,968 killed and 13,319 wounded since the war began. 

The Israeli army issued a warning to civilians in southern Lebanon, urging them to avoid returning to their villages and olive groves. An afternoon airstrike targeted the Galerie Semaan area on the border between Beirut's southern suburbs and eastern Beirut, initially injuring 11 people, according to the Ministry of Health.

For the first time since the escalation began, an Israeli commando force carried out a naval raid in Batroun, north of Beirut, abducting a Hezbollah official. Israel’s Maariv newspaper, citing the Israeli army, reported that forces had captured a Hezbollah official deep within Lebanon. Meanwhile, Axios reported that the Israeli navy had detained a senior Hezbollah naval officer in this northern Lebanon operation.
In response, Hezbollah continued its rocket attacks on Israeli military bases. According to Israeli media, a rocket landed in the central Israeli town of Tayra, initially injuring 11 people; emergency services later reported 19 injuries after the rocket struck a building directly. 

• Since October 8, 2023, 2,867 people have been killed and 13,047 injured, including 178 children killed and 1,173 injured.
• According to the International Organization for Migration, there are 842,648 internally displaced people, 52% female and 48% male.
• The World Health Organization reported 36 attacks on healthcare facilities, resulting in the deaths of 85 healthcare workers and injuries to 51 from September 17 to October 31, 2024.
• UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi noted on social media that “even fleeing has become difficult and dangerous” as border crossings continue to be hit.
• According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Israeli evacuation orders in Baalbek on October 30 and 31 caused widespread panic and mass civilian movement toward Zahle and Akkar. Many spent nights in their cars under harsh conditions seeking safety. Similar orders in Nabatiyeh, Tyre, and Beirut’s southern suburbs worsened the crisis. Orders are inconsistent before each strike, leaving civilians uncertain and vulnerable. On October 31, Israel issued the first-ever evacuation order for a refugee camp, Rashidieh, and for 10 southern villages, forcing residents to make difficult choices with few safe shelter options.
• The conflict has affected over 11,000 pregnant women, with 1,300 expected to give birth soon, according to the UN Population Fund.
• UNICEF reports that at least one child dies each day. The war has deeply traumatized children, leading to increased anxiety, aggression, and sleep disorders.
• Severe food insecurity is expected to worsen due to the conflict and economic pressures. From April to September 2024, 1.3 million people (23% of Lebanon’s population) faced high levels of food insecurity, including 85,000 in emergency conditions, according to UN food agencies.
• The World Food Programme reported a potential GDP contraction of up to 15.6%. Key sectors like tourism and agriculture have been hit hard, worsening inflation and disrupting supply chains.
• The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that the conflict has worsened challenges for farming communities, deepening Lebanon’s severe food security crisis. Israeli airstrikes continue to target food-producing areas, with over 1,900 hectares of farmland in the south and Nabatiyeh damaged or left unharvested.

International Developments

UNIFIL’s leader, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, stated that UN peacekeeping forces in South Lebanon are committed to staying, not only to monitor Israeli and Hezbollah actions but also to prevent either side from taking over UN facilities.

• Israeli media reports that Israel’s army is nearing the end of the first phase of its ground operations in South Lebanon, which began a month ago.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that the U.S. and Israel will face a strong response for their actions against Iran and the resistance. The Iranian army announced airspace closures from November 4 to 6.
• Axios reported that U.S. officials do not rule out an Iranian attack on Israel following the damage caused by Israel’s October 24 attack on Iran. Washington reaffirmed its readiness to defend Israel.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s attack may delay Iran’s production of solid-fuel missiles by at least a year due to damage to missile facilities.
• Jordan’s government stated that Jordan will not become a battlefield and warned of increasing regional instability.
• French diplomatic sources revealed that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu linked a halt to the war in Lebanon with a normalization deal with Lebanon. He emphasized that Israel’s security comes first, followed by implementing Resolution 1701.
• Israeli officials told Israel Hayom there has been no progress in Lebanon ceasefire talks, with disagreements on Israel’s freedom to act if Hezbollah breaches an agreement.
• The National Interest cited a Brown University report stating the Gaza and Lebanon wars are costing U.S. taxpayers billions.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi are urging PM Netanyahu to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and return hostages. The military believes further achievements are unlikely given soldier casualties.
• Hamas denied reports from Asharq Al-Awsat regarding the fate of Mohammed Deif.
• Turkey’s Trade Minister announced that Turkey has completely closed its customs to trade with Israel and will continue to support Palestinians economically.