Oct 30, 2024
A Region on Fire - Issue 34

A Region on Fire
Issue 34 - October 30, 2024 


A diplomatic push is happening quickly before the U.S. elections, but the outcome is uncertain, and negotiations between warring sides could harm Palestinians and Lebanese citizens.


Although international and regional diplomatic efforts are intensifying just days before the U.S. elections, a notable event is the meeting of the group supporting a two-state solution, invited by Saudi Arabia, along with a visit by Biden's advisors, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, to Israel. There are rumors of a possible 60-day ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to verify Lebanon's compliance. However, there are big doubts about this information's accuracy, with the White House clarifying that talk of a ceasefire agreement is incorrect, as both sides (Israel and Hezbollah) rejected it.

While there are signs of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, if serious, these diplomatic efforts are slow compared to the rapid escalation on the ground, where bombings claim hundreds of lives every day, making the efforts seem too slow from the perspective of Palestinian and Lebanese victims.

Furthermore, the discussions focus on the “day after” in Gaza and Lebanon, with negotiations centered on guarantees and concessions for Israel. This could lead to local arrangements in Palestine or Lebanon that overlook Palestinian and Lebanese national interests, with a risk of deals and compromises made at their expense.

 
Ongoing international condemnation of the Knesset's decision to ban UNRWA's operations
 
Navi Pillay, head of the international committee investigating the Palestinian territories, said Israel’s actions amount to collective punishment and war crimes, including deliberate killings. She also stated that Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza’s healthcare system.

The United Nations Security Council strongly warned against any attempts to dismantle or reduce UNRWA’s operations. This came after Israel passed a law banning the agency’s work. In a statement, the Council expressed deep concern over the legislation and urged the Israeli government to follow international obligations, respect UNRWA’s rights, and ensure full, safe, and unimpeded humanitarian aid access across Gaza.

 













Battlefield Developments in Lebanon

The Israeli army continued its attacks, targeting many areas in Lebanon since Wednesday morning. They used artillery and airstrikes on Nabatieh, Khiyam (with over 10 airstrikes), the Litani River, and several villages across southern Lebanon. Israeli drones targeted two cars in Bishamoun and Aley, and a van loaded with ammunition in Aarayah, Mount Lebanon. Another strike hit Ayoun al-Siman in Mount Lebanon. The search and rescue operations have concluded in Harat Sidon and Sarafand, with a final toll of 10 dead and 36 injured in Harat Sidon and 15 killed in Sarafand.

The Israeli army ordered evacuations in eight villages in southern Lebanon, moving residents north of the Awali River. Evacuation orders also covered the entire city of Baalbek and nearby areas in eastern Lebanon. Following this, heavy airstrikes caused severe destruction. Baalbek’s governor urged people to evacuate, describing the situation as catastrophic, with widespread panic. Reports indicate Israel’s evacuation map for Baalbek includes areas with ancient Roman ruins.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese National News Agency reported a large number of Israeli tanks entering Tell Hamams, the deepest Israeli incursion in southern Lebanon since late September.

Israeli military radio reported that over 80 Israelis, including soldiers and civilians, have been killed in October, calling it “Black October.” Among them, 64 were soldiers, with 33 killed in southern Lebanon and 19 in Gaza.

Hezbollah announced it launched rocket attacks on Israeli troops near Khiyam. Later, Hezbollah also targeted Israeli soldiers in southern and eastern areas of Khiyam with rockets and artillery. They reported destroying an Israeli Merkava tank with a guided missile, causing casualties among its crew.

Hezbollah also attacked the Tira al-Karmel base south of Haifa with drones and launched rockets at Israeli forces near al-Omara in southern Khiyam. Another attack targeted Israeli troops at Yaqousa on Khiyam’s outskirts.

In the last 24 hours, there were 101 airstrikes across Lebanon, mostly in the south and Nabatieh, bringing the total attacks to 11,579 since the aggression began.


 

Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reported 28 deaths and 165 injuries in the last 24 hours. The total casualties have reached 2,820 dead and 12,937 injured since the start of the conflict. Health ministry data as of October 28, 2024, shows 172 health workers killed, 233 injured, with 39 hospitals, 80 medical centers, and 242 emergency vehicles affected.

 

Political Developments in Lebanon

Sources close to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri told Sky News that U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has not yet scheduled a visit to Lebanon and is waiting for results from talks in Israel. Lebanon is awaiting an official and final Israeli stance on ending military operations.

Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that Lebanon has no intention of changing even a word in Resolution 1701. He added that the U.S. mediator did not mention Resolution 1559 or replacing UNIFIL with multinational forces in southern Lebanon.

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is open to a settlement in Lebanon to ensure settlers' safe return to their towns. The channel stated that Netanyahu’s consultations with officials concluded that the ground operation in Lebanon met its goals, with significant progress toward a settlement.

Israel’s public broadcaster announced that U.S. envoy Hochstein is drafting an agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Under this deal, Israel's army would withdraw from Lebanon within a week, with operations resuming if the agreement is breached.

In his first statement after his appointment, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem said that the current aggression uses all forms of brutality to impose a plan, and they must resist. He emphasized Hezbollah’s readiness to endure and fight for days, weeks, or even months, and pledged to continue until victory. He renewed Hezbollah’s authorization for Speaker Berri and the Prime Minister to negotiate, stating that if Israel agrees to a proposal, Hezbollah will review it and consider a ceasefire on its own terms.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Israeli Knesset’s new law banning UNRWA’s activities, calling it a blatant violation of international law. The ministry urged the international community to act against these illegal actions, maintain support, and provide funding to ensure UNRWA can continue serving Palestinian refugees until they can return to their homeland, in line with U.N. Resolution 194.

 

Humanitarian Response in Lebanon
 

Minister of Environment and Emergency Coordinator Nasser Yassin told Al Jazeera that Israel's continued violations of international laws are worsening the displacement crisis, especially with winter approaching. Lebanon faces major challenges, including providing food for over 250,000 displaced people in 1,100 overcrowded shelters. Yassin noted serious threats to aid convoys and said Lebanon received pledges of $800 million in aid from the Paris conference, but activation is needed. Some aid is arriving by air from Arab countries.

The Health Minister stated that primary health centers are the first line of defense, offering essential health services to the displaced. In Iqlim al-Kharrub, over 100,000 displaced people are present, and the Minister reviewed local health service coverage with the Ministry of Health and other support agencies.
Baalbek-Hermel Governor reported severe security and logistical issues, with houses, churches, and schools in Deir al-Ahmar full of displaced people. The humanitarian situation is dire, with people evacuating on foot due to Israeli orders, heading north.
 

 

Currently, 1,120 shelters are operational, with a capacity of 949, though the total displaced exceeds 188,000 (43,759 families), primarily in Mount Lebanon and Beirut. This number is only 20% of total displaced people outside shelters, highlighting a need for more aid.

Between September 23 and October 30, 2024, 356,646 Syrians and 169,702 Lebanese crossed into Syria.
As of October 28, 2024, the Ministry of Health provided services in 239 primary care centers, 245 mobile clinics, and conducted 734 shelter visits, offering medical exams to 86,752 and medicines to 61,446 displaced people. Additionally, 928 baby formula packs were distributed.

The Prime Minister reported 49 aid planes have landed in Beirut since the start of the crisis, half with medical supplies and the other half with food and cleaning items. As part of the U.N. response, 55 aid trucks were sent to border and affected areas in October.

Minister of Energy Walid Fayyad estimated the damage to Lebanon’s electricity, energy, and water infrastructure at around $480 million due to Israeli attacks.


 


International Positions
 

The UNIFIL spokesperson said villages near the Blue Line suffered heavy damage or were completely destroyed, and the situation is dire.

Saudi Arabia hosted the first meeting of the Global Coalition for the "Two-State Solution" in Riyadh, with 90 countries joining to push for a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia also called for a joint Arab-Islamic summit to discuss the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.

The Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister discussed regional developments, especially in Gaza and Lebanon, in a call with Iran's Foreign Minister.

UNRWA’s Commissioner-General, Philippe Lazzarini, warned that dismantling the agency would have devastating impacts on the humanitarian response in Gaza and severe consequences for international peace and security. He urged the U.N. to take action.

Médecins Sans Frontières stated that Israel’s ban on UNRWA will have disastrous effects on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem.

Norway plans to submit a U.N. resolution asking the International Court of Justice to assess Israel's adherence to international law after its ban on UNRWA.

The EU’s foreign policy chief called images from Beit Lahia in Gaza horrifying, stating that principles of proportionality and civilian protection are being ignored.

Axios reported that U.S. and Israeli officials believe Hezbollah may be willing to distance itself from Hamas in Gaza. An agreement could end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah within weeks.

The US State department opposes legislation passed by the Israeli parliament that would block the establishment of a US consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem.

While the U.S. supports Israel's right to pursue legitimate Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said it was critical its operations  to protect civilian lives and cultural sites Iran’s Defense Minister stated that Israel’s attacks have not affected missile production.
Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides expressed optimism for a possible ceasefire in Lebanon within one to two weeks.


 


Gaza: 1,250 killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza over the past 25 days
 

On the 390th day of the assault on Gaza, Israel continued airstrikes, resulting in more casualties. The Beit Lahia municipality called for a humanitarian corridor to assist residents in the north, who have been trapped for 25 days.

Palestinian media reported that over 1,250 people have been killed in northern Gaza due to ongoing Israeli military operations over this period.

The Gaza Ministry of Health announced that the Israeli army committed five massacres in the region, with 102 dead and 287 wounded arriving at hospitals within 24 hours. This raises the total toll from the Israeli assault to 43,163 dead and 101,510 injured.


The West Bank

Haaretz reported that 139 Palestinians from occupied East Jerusalem fear losing the lands on which they have been living for decades. Despite the residents holding documents proving land ownership, they discovered a decision to register these lands in the name of a Jewish organization. According to the report, residents of Umm Tuba were surprised when one resident applied for a building permit and found that the land was registered under the "Jewish National Fund." This means that the organization could potentially seek their eviction.

 

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