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Nov 01, 2024
A Region on Fire - Issue 36
النسخة العربية

A Region on Fire
Issue 36 - November 2, 2024 


Everything in the region revolves around the U.S. presidential election. 


Iran warns it will respond painfully to Israeli attacks, possibly before the U.S. election, while Israel responds, threatening to use unprecedented weapons if Iran attacks.

American envoys have made progress in negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, with points like Hezbollah’s withdrawal beyond the Litani River and the Lebanese army’s deployment to the south, supported by international forces. However, final execution awaits the new U.S. administration’s input post-election.

The Middle East has become a battleground between Iran and the U.S., both careful to avoid crossing red lines. Meanwhile, Israel’s military operations against Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank continue, causing heavy loss of life and property.

 

Gaza: Northern Gaza Residents Face Danger of Death

UN humanitarian leaders warn that conditions in northern Gaza are "dire," with residents facing "imminent danger of death" due to disease, starvation, and violence. The WHO and UNICEF call for a humanitarian pause to carry out a polio vaccination campaign.

On the 392nd day of the conflict in Gaza, medical sources report 31 deaths and dozens wounded, including 17 casualties at the Nuseirat camp. Hamas confirmed receiving proposals for a short truce, increased aid, and partial prisoner exchanges. October was one of the bloodiest months since the war began, with 183 journalists killed.
 

West Bank and Al-Aqsa Mosque

Israeli forces carried out raids in towns across the West Bank, clashing with Palestinians in Nablus and Tulkarm. UNRWA accused Israel of damaging its office in the Nur Shams refugee camp in northern West Bank.

In Nablus, Israeli forces stormed several neighborhoods, arresting residents, and detained another person in Qalqilya after raiding his home.

October saw a record number of Israeli violations in Jerusalem, with over 10,000 extremists entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Israeli police constructed a three-story station near Bab al-Hadeed, one of the mosque’s gates, claiming authorization from the Israeli regional planning committee.

Israeli forces also detained over 200 Jerusalem residents, including six minors and two women. Courts issued 48 administrative detention orders, mainly targeting prisoners from villages northwest of Jerusalem holding West Bank IDs, with most detainees facing repeated renewals of these orders.

 

Battlefield Developments in Lebanon

In the last 24 hours, 120 airstrikes and bombardments hit various areas across Lebanon. Israel targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs, causing extensive destruction, leveling dozens of buildings, and triggering fires. The attacks followed warnings from Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee, breaking a brief period of calm over the area. Israel also struck Nabatiyeh and targeted a home in Qamatiyeh, Mount Lebanon, for the second time, resulting in 3 deaths and 5 injuries. The death toll in Baalbek and nearby areas has reached 11, with 14 others injured. Israeli forces continued their assaults in the south and the Bekaa Valley, leading to more casualties, and launched additional airstrikes on Tyre without warning.


In the past day alone, 30 people were killed, and 103 were injured, raising the total casualties since the conflict began to 2,897 dead and 13,150 injured.

Israel has declared the town of Metula a closed military zone after five civilians died in rocket fire from Lebanon. Yedioth Ahronoth reported that in October, 13 Israeli civilians were killed by rockets or shrapnel, 6 soldiers died from a drone strike on the Golani base dining hall, and 37 soldiers were killed in ground operations in southern Lebanon, marking October as the deadliest month since October 7 of the previous year.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued its retaliatory strikes on Israeli sites and settlements, claiming to have killed over 95 Israeli soldiers and injured around 900 since Israel entered southern Lebanon on September 30. Hezbollah also reported the destruction of 50 Israeli military vehicles, mostly tanks.


 
 

Political Developments in Lebanon: Concerns Over Lebanon Becoming a "Second Gaza"

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reaffirmed Lebanon’s commitment to UN Resolution 1701, acknowledging UNIFIL's resilience amid Israeli aggression.

He deplores US initiative failure, expressing concern that Lebanon may face the same fate as Gaza. Berri added that the political efforts to resolve the ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel have been postponed until after the U.S. presidential election.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati emphasized Lebanon’s rejection of any changes to UNIFIL's mandate, which operates in close coordination with the Lebanese army. He pointed out that Israel's "expansion" of its attacks indicated a rejection of efforts to broker a truce and fully implement Resolution 1701. The Lebanese premier added that Israel's diplomatic behavior suggested it was rejecting a cease-fire.

Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stated that ceasefire negotiations are ongoing, while also refuting claims by Reuters that the U.S. has asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire. Another Lebanese official dismissed these reports, emphasizing that the U.S. has not made such a request and that Lebanon prioritizes a mutual ceasefire before discussing further terms.

A Lebanese MP from Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc said unilateral ceasefire proposals are off the table. He outlined three essential actions for Lebanon to address the crisis: enhancing ground resistance to hinder Israeli advances, strengthening national unity to confront Israeli assaults, and pursuing a ceasefire before addressing any subsequent arrangements.


Humanitarian Response: Severe Funding Shortage for Aid


The United Nations warned Friday its flash appeal for humanitarian aid in Lebanon was so far only 17 percent funded, urging donor countries to turn pledges into cash.“We are facing a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation,” said Jens Laerke, spokesman for the UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA.“The needs are rising by the minute, and the pledge does not buy food, medicine or shelter. So we’re hoping for a rapid disbursement.”

The appeal for Lebanon has raised only 17% of the $426 million requested. Contributions included $17 million from Italy, $11.7 million from the U.S., $10 million from the UN’s emergency relief fund, $9.3 million from Sweden, $7.2 million from France, $6.4 million from the UK, and $5.5 million from Germany.

 

 

The Ministry of Public Health published a detailed list of aid received from Lebanese communities abroad to support the healthcare sector, totaling 23,376 tons. This aid includes medication for chronic and acute conditions, medical supplies, and vaccines, which were shipped free by Middle East Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Turkish Airlines.

Aid has also continued to arrive from the UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France. However, Mayor Asaad Zgheib of Zahle reported that shelters in Zahle can no longer accommodate additional displaced people, with over 5,000 already housed there.

Currently, 1,132 certified shelters have been established, with 945 now at full capacity. The total number of registered displaced people in certified shelters has reached 188,298 (43,802 families), with the highest numbers in Mount Lebanon and Beirut. The true number of displaced is estimated to be significantly higher.

More than 10,000 people fled Baalbek since Thursday night following threats from the Israeli army, relocating to shelters in Deir Al-Ahmar, Arsal, Al-Fakiha, and the northern and Beqaa governorates.
UNICEF reported that since October 4, at least one child has been killed daily, with 10 others injured each day. Thousands of other children, though surviving, are suffering severe respiratory issues due to escalating violence and chaos.

Between September 23 and October 30, Lebanon’s General Security registered the crossing of 359,805 Syrian nationals and 175,215 Lebanese citizens into Syria.

Lebanon has set up 239 primary health centers to assist the displaced, operating 245 mobile clinics and teams, visiting 734 shelters, providing medical exams for 97,784 displaced persons, distributing medicines to 69,326 individuals, supporting 1,647 hospital cases, and delivering 13,781 packages of infant formula.
 


International Developments


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that negotiators have made "good progress" toward a deal that would bring a ceasefire in Israel's offensive in Lebanon. The Pentagon reported that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, reaffirming that the United States is well postured to defend U.S. personnel, allies, and partners against attacks from Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies.

CNN reports that Iran could deliver a “decisive and painful” response to Israel's airstrike next week, ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Although a specific timeline for the counterattack was not disclosed, the source suggested it would likely occur before the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. Israel military chief says if Iran attacks we will hit back with capabilities that we did not even use last time.

The World Health Organization announced it had documented 55 attacks on medical personnel and healthcare facilities in Lebanon. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Emir of Qatar stressed the need for partners to collaborate to ensure regional stability.

CNN also cited a former Israeli intelligence official stating that Iran might use militias in Iraq to carry out a retaliatory strike against Israel. Reuters reported that the U.S. requested Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to facilitate discussions on a final agreement, although Prime Minister Najib Mikati's office later denied that it.

The Washington Post indicated that Israel has destroyed nearly a quarter of buildings in 25 towns in southern Lebanon, primarily since its attempts to enter the region militarily. Israeli Channel 12 reported that U.S. envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk made significant progress toward a settlement that would push Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River, deploy the Lebanese army along the Israeli border, and establish an international mechanism to enforce a ceasefire while allowing Israel freedom of movement in response to threats. This proposed settlement would include a 60-day adjustment period, and it reportedly does not involve a security zone in southern Lebanon.

Axios cited a senior U.S. official stating that Washington may suspend military aid to Israel if it fails to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza by November 13th.

The Israeli cabinet approved a long-delayed wartime budget package on Friday that includes a raft of tax increases and spending cuts to pay for a war that has entered its second year with no immediate end in sight. The budget aims to address a deficit that has reached 8.5% of GDP.

 

Lebanon Palestine
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