The impact of war on the political situation and the path of democratic transformation in Sudan - Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim Al-Hassan
The impact of war on the political situation
and the path of democratic transformation in Sudan - Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim
Al-Hassan
War is the most hideous thing humanity has
invented. Whatever its causes and motives, it appears as an irrational, complex
phenomenon. There is no room for guesswork and prediction in the battlefield.
The germ of war grows in various environments and geographical, demographic,
economic, and political structures. According to Clausewitz, war is a social
activity, a state affair, and an organized act waged by the state for its own
benefit, and sometimes against the state itself. Thinkers, politicians, and strategists
have been divided over the reasons that led to the outbreak of the April 15,
2023 war in Sudan. Although this space does not allow a complete overview of
the motives and factors that led to its outbreak, it is possible to sense some
of the main contributing reasons. They are:
Sudan's geostrategic location placed it
on the international and regional agenda of competition and conflict of
interests. The civil wars that plagued the country since before independence
are linked to the conflict of interests between some international and regional
powers. These interests turned Sudan into a battlefield echoing the changes
witnessed in the internal and global political arena. The conflict between
various axes is evident in the battles that took place since the outbreak of
the war in Khartoum.
Economic factors: Sudan has a vast
wealth of natural and material resources, including oil, strategic minerals,
animals and fish, water, and vast agricultural lands. Thus, it became the focus
of external ambitions and has historically witnessed invasions, migrations, and
various colonial experiences. It has also become a major factor in the struggle
for wealth and power between different elites, civilian and military, as it
formed a center for incubating and producing armed movements in the region's
"states" that suffer from developmental marginalization. After the
December revolution uprooted Al-Bashir's regime in April 2019, conflict broke
out between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over economic
resources, as they were seeking to inherit the wealth, institutions, and
financial projects of the defunct regime. They worked together to obstruct
economic empowerment achieved by the transitional government led by Dr.
Abdullah Hamdok, which culminated in the October 2021 coup. The conflict between
the two military wings over the acquisition of wealth continued and reached its
peak with the outbreak of the current war.
Social Factors: Sudan is a miniature of
Africa in terms of diversity and ethnic, tribal, linguistic, and ideological
plurality, which cast a heavy shadow on the wars erupting from the south,
through Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Blue Nile, and ending with the current
war. The ethnic and regional dimension remains present alongside identity
conflicts. Some of those who know Sudanese affairs believe that the current war
is a military split within the Islamic movement between the Darfuri leadership
in "the West" and the leadership in the center, east, and north.
Thus, a regionalist discourse was integrated into the war's structures, include
the rise of some voices with separatist tendencies.
Political motives: The current war
raises wide controversy about its causes and the conflicting parties' political
goals. It differs from previous wars, which usually took place between central
governments and politically motivated armed movements. On the other hand, the current
war broke out between two parties at the top of political power after the
removal of the civilian authority in October 2021. Despite the ambiguous
political goals of the two war generals, given the state of failure and
political impotence that accompanied their joint rule for a year and a half. A
deep look at the developments clearly indicates a close connection between the
underlying political causes and goals of this war and the December revolution,
which brought about profound multi-dimensional transformations. Attempts to
control the compass of change and stifle the revolution's project remained a
fundamental concern for the military, alongside the authoritarian tendencies of
the two generals, Burhan and Hemedti. It is butressed through a regional cover
that seeks to thwart the democratic transformation in the country. The
polarization and fragmentation of the revolutionary forces and armed struggle
movements also helped. However, the intense competition between the two
leaders, and their public and clandestine attempts towards unilateral control
reached its peak in July 2021. It ushered the inevitable separation and armed
confrontation, despite the efforts made by the civilian revolutionary forces
and the international community to avoid this situation through the framework
agreement.
The
practices of the army and the Rapid Support Forces towards the December 2019
revolution reveal that they are not completely convinced by its goals and
objectives. The counter-revolutionary forces, led by supporters of the former
regime who control the two forces, the rest of the security services, and some
armed movements. They exploited the situation and decided to ignite the war as
a strategic option that would lead to cutting off the path of democratic
transformation due to its profound effects and repercussions for the state and
society. Their acts can be described as follows:
First: Threatening the unity of the state:
The war led to the destruction of many state institutions that are no longer
able to carry out their roles, especially in the areas controlled by the Rapid
Support Forces. In light of the continued failure and inability of the warring
parties to protect civilians, committing massacres and violations on ethnic and
regional grounds, some voices with separatist tendencies began to appear,
"State of '56 versus the State of the River and Sea."
Second: Militarization and the spread of
weapons: The war between the two main powers in Sudan quickly turned into
an open alliance, with more than fifteen military forces and militias fighting
on either side of the conflict. Weapons have spread heavily among civilians and
a large portion of them are being saturated with the culture of violence and
revenge, in addition to the widespread presence of organized crime gangs.
Perhaps one of the most dangerous strategic effects of the war in Sudan is
militarization, which conflicts with the process of democratic transformation.
Military forces control significant parts of the national economy alongside
armies and militias of a regional and tribal nature. Thus, the task of bringing
about a genuine democratic transformation becomes difficult, as it is
impossible to imagine a democratic society in which organized and continuous
militarization is taking place. Accordingly, talking about the possibility of a
democratic transformation in the country, whatever its approaches, stages, and
mechanisms, is inconsistent with a reality in which military formations are
spreading and multiplying under different names.
Third: The absence of civil political work:
The expansion of the war's geography to include most of the states led to a
complete paralysis in the movement and activities of political parties and
civil society organizations. Some of them are witnessing horizontal and
vertical cracks and divisions due to the prevailing discourse of mobilization
and military polarization, sometimes based on tribal and regional foundations.
This situation is accompanied by an almost complete halt in education and the
closure of many universities, the centers for preparing and providing strategic
support for parties and civil society. The result is the spread of ignorance
and illiteracy accompanied by a culture of violence and the absence of
political awareness and culture that enhances democratic values and peaceful
political work.
Fourth: Human rights violation and the
absence of justice: Since the outbreak of fighting, the warring parties
have given their forces broad powers in the areas under their control,
exceeding the constitutional limits and the legal structure of the state,
without concern for flagrant violations of rights and freedoms. Killing,
torture, and imprisonment of thousands of civilians without trials and far from
judicial institutions and judicial bodies have spread. In light of the ongoing
violation of human rights and the prevalence of the vengeful mind, the
political environment threatening the democratic transition is growing day
after day.
Several
factors and causes have intertwined according to a precise system of actions
and their responses to lead to the outbreak of a comprehensive and ongoing war
in Sudan, which has led to further complexity in the political scene. Its
repercussions continue, posing a serious threat to the structure of the state
and society and eating away at the body of the revolutionary forces that desire
to achieve democratic transformation and have been fighting for it for more
than 30 years.
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