The fall of the Syrian Regime: The End of an Era or the Beginning of a New Phase? - Ziad Abdel Samad
The fall of the Syrian Regime: The End of an Era or the Beginning of a New Phase? - Ziad Abdel Samad
The collapse of the Syrian regime was not unexpected; however, the timing and the nature of its rapid collapse, occurring within a matter of days, has exceeded all expectations, including those of the opposing forces. Since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution amidst the Arab Spring, the regime has faced significant challenges that nearly precipitated its disintegration, were it not for the military and political support it received from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. This coalition enabled the regime to withstand the popular uprising and transformed the conflict from a domestic, peaceful, political and popular movement into a battleground for regional and international interventions.
External Interventions and Political Fluctuations
As protests erupted in Syria in 2011, the regime has resorted to a long history of repression to suppress dissent, leveraging its extensive experience in controlling Syrian society since the era of Hafez al-Assad. However, as tensions escalated, the regime was compelled to seek assistance from its regional and international partners. Iran intervened through the Revolutionary Guard, while Hezbollah provided direct military support. In 2015, Russia deployed its air and ground forces, thereby shifting the balance of power in favor of Assad.
However, these dynamics have changed drastically in late 2023, with the outbreak of the war in Gaza and the escalation of the regional confrontations. Hezbollah found itself engaged in direct clash with Israel, entering a war of attrition for which it was inadequately prepared. The severe losses it incurred in Lebanon diminished its military influence, which consequently impacted Iran's standing in the region. Following the signing of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Hezbollah was unable to extend the same level of support to the Syrian regime as it had previously done.
Isolation of Assad and his rapid fall
As Iran grappled with its internal challenges and the regional losses it had incurred, Assad began to lose his primary source of support.
Concurrently, Russia was preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine and sought to improve its relations with Turkey, particularly as both nations were mediators in a dialogue aimed at resolving the Syrian-Turkish conflict. However, Assad's regime rejected any overture towards Ankara, disregarding Russian pressure.
In the meantime, Saudi Arabia, through the Arab League, introduced an initiative aimed at achieving a comprehensive political settlement in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which stipulates the establishment of a transitional government inclusive of opposition participation. Nevertheless, Assad has rejected all such initiatives, resulting in a loss of Arab cover and diminished Russian support, following the earlier loss of the Iranian and Hezbollah assistance.
The last significant Arab opportunity was represented by the Amman initiative, which constituted the final Arab attempt to engage Assad and position him as a partner in ending Iranian influence in Syria.
With the decline of these alliances, the Syrian armed opposition, based in Idlib and supported by Turkey, seized the opportunity to move towards Damascus. In a matter of days, the regime collapsed at an unexpectedly rapid pace, amid the absence of any Iranian or Russian intervention to save it.
Assad's Silent Withdrawal
Multiple sources indicate that Bashar al-Assad had been planning his departure for several weeks, choosing withdrawal rather than engaging in a futile struggle.
However, the biggest surprise was his exit without notifying his closest advisors, including his brother Maher al-Assad, the commander of the Fourth Division, which served as the last line of defense backed by Iran.
Assad's withdrawal in such a manner reflects the magnitude of the radical shift in both the Syrian and regional contexts. After more than a decade of conflict, the regime's downfall does not merely represent the end of the Assad era but also heralds the beginning of a new phase that could radically transform the future of Syria.
A Complex Transitional Phase
Syria is currently navigating a difficult and complex transitional period. On one hand, the country grapples with extensive destruction affecting governmental institutions, public services, and infrastructure, alongside a worsening economic and social crisis. On the other hand, the absence of a centralized authority has created a significant power vacuum, enabling the armed factions, which played a crucial role in liberating Damascus, to take over the reins of power.
Despite their success in establishing a coordinating body led by Ahmad al-Shara, referred to as "Aggression Deterrence Room ," these factions have struggled to achieve genuine cohesion among themselves, thereby making differences in addressing fundamental issues likely to happen. This is particularly pertinent to the unification of weapons under the umbrella of the Syrian state, which is a critical matter that may influence the integrity and stability of the state in the future.
Israel Intervenes
Following the fall of the regime, Israel took the initiative to destroy the defensive and offensive capabilities of the Syrian army and expanded into southern Syria under the pretext of protecting settlements in northern Israel. This move positions Israel as a significant regional player domestically. Perhaps the intentions behind its interventions may be geared towards achieving political objectives, with a peace treaty with Syria being one of its most prominent aims. Israeli intervention in Syria could foster the fragmentation of the country, particularly after the recent statements from Israeli leaders asserting that Israel's goal is to protect minorities, particularly the Druze and Kurds, despite the absence of any requests for such protection from these communities. On the contrary, both parties consider themselves as an integral component of the Syrian social fabric.
Among the challenges facing the emerging regime is the quest for international recognition, and consequently, the willingness to support reconstruction and recovery efforts. However, this issue depends on the performance of the political authority in demonstrating to both the international and Arab communities that the forces and factions entitled to manage the transitional phase are open and adhere to democratic mechanisms and participation, relying on transparency and equitable participation, based on respect for rights and freedoms and the establishment of the rule of law. Perhaps Al- Sharaa regime may currently have an opportunity to prove this by forming the new Syrian government, intended to succeed the government of Mohammad Bashir, whose term ends on March 1, 2025.
What’s next?
The fall of the regime has opened the door to fundamental questions regarding the future of Syria:
Will the opposition succeed in managing the transitional phase?
How will the various groups within Syria react?
What role will regional and international powers assume in shaping the future of the country?
What role can the Syrian society, with all its components, including civil society organizations, play?
While answers to these questions are expected to become clearer in the coming months, they will undoubtedly play a significant role in redefining the political map of the region in the post- Assad era.
The contributions stipulated in this article include insights into these developments and seek to answer some of these questions.
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