An alarming increase in irregular migration by Sea from Lebanon![i] - By Ibrahim Jouhari
The current unrest in the Middle East and worldwide has increased global irregular immigration, reaching 200,000 in 2021, the highest since 2017. Meanwhile, the ongoing crisis in Lebanon and its neighboring countries has led to a parallel but more severe increase in irregular migration to Europe from Lebanese shores. This increase in mobility has triggered a rise in xenophobia, allowing for the politicization of migration in destination and transit countries for migrants. Hence, there is an urgent need for accurate and reliable data about this phenomenon to find the proper solutions that can translate into adequate policies.
To help in this regard, Mr. Ibrahim Jouhari and Dr. Jasmine Liliane Diab have written a comprehensive research paper on this issue, funded by Friedrich Naumann Foundation Madrid and its Migration Policy Group. This report’s primary goal is to survey and track all irregular maritime migration attempts that start from Lebanon toward Europe by collecting accurate official data and presenting it in a transparent, easily accessible, and publicly publishable format[ii].
This research paper has also compared the collected data with other information from international sources such as UNHCR, IOM, and Frontex to analyze confidentially, draw the necessary conclusions, and confirm changing trends to provide international NGOs, public institutions, the media, think tanks, and the public at large with reliable information. This effort will be critical in reaching sensible and rational conclusions and finding the proper solutions to a growing international problem that constantly threatens the upkeep of human rights.
Massive exodus caused by the ongoing economic crisis
This research has uncovered that irregular migration from Lebanon by sea has significantly increased, fueled by the ongoing severe economic, financial, and banking crisis in Lebanon, characterized by World Bank as “likely to rank in the top three, most severe crises episodes globally since the mid-nineteenth century,” [iii] Indeed, the Lebanese currency has lost more than 90% of its value, dropping from 1,500 to 80,000 LBP to the US Dollar, while inflation hit a 240% high in 2022.[iv] This has made people’s wages essentially worthless throughout this still-ongoing crisis. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s economy shrunk by 10.5% in 2021, adding to -25.9% in 2020 and -6.9% in 2019. The protracted economic crisis has led to a marked decline in disposable income. GDP per capita dropped by 36.5% between 2019 and 2021, and Lebanon was reclassified by the World Bank as a lower-middle-income country, down from upper-middle-income status in July 2022.[v]
Meanwhile, more than 45% of the Lebanese population has fallen under the poverty line, receiving less than 3.1 USD per day. In addition, 22% of Lebanon’s population is below the extreme poverty line as unemployment soars.[vi] Tripoli and North Lebanon have been hit harder by the crisis: 74% of households live below the poverty line in Tripoli.[vii] Consequently, emigration has significantly increased due to the worsening situation, lack of job opportunities, and economic prospects. According to World Bank statistics, Lebanon has witnessed a negative net migration since 2015, losing more than 200,000 residents annually.[viii]
Additionally, this protracted crisis has also affected the population growth rate, which has become negative since 2015 ranging from -2% per year to a significant -2.8% in 2019 with the start of the crisis. These factors have pushed the Lebanese population to leave their country, looking for better opportunities. In a recent survey organized by ELKA Lebanon, 94% of Lebanese viewed the country as going in the wrong direction.[ix] As such, 61% of the representative sample consider emigrating in the next three years.
Rising number of attempts and casualties
Thus, it is unsurprising that the number of irregular migration attempts has exponentially increased. Indeed, the data unequivocally shows a significant yearly increase in ships and individuals attempting to migrate from Lebanon’s shores. This trend is reflected in all the available data sets and sources.
Unfortunately, the number of casualties mounts with the increased number of migration attempts, significantly since the demand for migration constantly increases and smugglers tend to place more significant numbers on the boats. Rising from 6 reported casualties in 2019 to 28 in 2020, reaching 157 in 2022.[x]
On the other hand, the data collected by the project has shown a significant increase in the number of Lebanese migrants in absolute numbers and as a share of all migrants leaving the Lebanese shores. In previous years, most migrants were Syrians, with a limited number of Palestinians also attempting to journey. However, following Lebanon’s economic crisis that began in late 2019, every year, the number and percentage of Lebanese migrants on boats heading out of Lebanon increased. According to UNHCR numbers last year, 62% of irregular migrants from Lebanon were Syrian, 11% Palestinian, and 28% Lebanese. The figure was on the rise compared to the previous years: in 2021, Lebanese migrants were 11% (186 out of 1,570), and in 2020 they were 18% (148 out of 794). [xi]
Italy as destination
This study has also uncovered a changing pattern in irregular migration out of Lebanon. Indeed, our data, corroborated with Frontex, has shown that since 2020 migrants have been attempting to reach farther shores, with increased frequency to Italy. The main reason is that on the 6th of October 2020, Cyprus and Lebanon signed a migration deal with the Lebanese Government, allowing Cyprus to return all migrants aboard boats attempting to reach Cyprus back to Lebanon. Frontex data mirrors this finding by showing a sharp increase in Lebanese migrants arriving in Italy through the Central route starting in 2020 and even eclipsing the Eastern route (Greece and Cyprus) arrivals in 2021 and 2022. [xii]
The cost of attempts
According to the data collected by the project, the cost of clandestine migration attempts from Lebanon varied from 3,000 USD to 7,000 USD, with an average of around 4,500 USD. There were several reports in the press, most notably by Legal Agenda and Al Hurra, and they spoke of similar numbers. Legal Agenda’s report spoke of a 5,000 USD average cost and explained the other costs associated with a migration attempt. Indeed, the report stated that “a boat can cost around 35,000 USD to 50,000 USD for larger ones. A captain fee is 30,000 USD, which costs 25,000 USD to bribe the security forces and the radar operators, and 15,000 USD for fuel and water.” [xiii]
Conclusion
With the ongoing political deadlock and the lack of serious reforms, the crisis is projected to worsen in the short and even medium terms. Consequently, we are looking at a sustained increase in the number of irregular migrants leaving Lebanon. The figures might, unfortunately, reach 10,000 recorded migrants trying or leaving Lebanon in 2023 using more than 50 boats!
Additionally, most of the attempts will head towards the farther shores of Italy as they provide the best chances of entering Europe with low possibilities of pushback and returns. Unfortunately, with the sharp increase in attempts and a majority of them heading toward Italy, the number of casualties will also rise, overtaking the 157 fatalities of 2022. This is a serious emerging crisis that should be researched, discussed and brought to the attention of local, regional, and international NGOs, public institutions, universities, think tanks, and the public at large! In an effort to find the proper policy recommendations and subsequent solutions.
Sources:
[i] This article is based on the larger research paper on migration, and has been amended for brevity and clarity
[ii] The full report can be accessed here https://www.freiheit.org/publikation/conflict-crisis-and-migration
[iii] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lebanon/publication/lebanon-economic-monitor-spring-2021-lebanon-sinking-to-the-top-3, p.21
[iv] https://blog.blominvestbank.com/43040/lebanons-inflation-rate-reached-239-68-by-january-2022/
[v] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lebanon/overview
[vi] https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/474551606779642981/lebanon-economic-monitor-the-deliberate-depression
[vii] https://www.refugeesintowns.org/all-reports/tripoli
[viii] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lebanon/overview
[ix] ELKA Lebanon is a new statistics company that made this survey in September 2022, based on a national representative sample of 800. For more information: http://elka-lebanon.com
[x] https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1312253/the-new-routes-and-rising-numbers-of-would-be-migrants-leaving-lebanon.html
[xi] https://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/generalnews/2023/01/09/irregular-migrants-from-lebanon-176-in-2022-un_1a6388a4-cf03-40cd-b420-111071012d09.html
[xii] https://www.annahar.com/english/section/830-in-the-news/06102020061341531
[xiii] https://www.annahar.com/english/section/830-in-the-news/06102020061341531
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