Nov 26, 2024
A Region on Fire - Issue 61

A Region on Fire
Issue 61 - November 26, 2024 



The ceasefire began at 4:00 am on Wednesday, and people have begun to return to most areas.


As of 4:00 AM Wednesday, following announcements by President Biden and earlier Netanyahu, the ceasefire in Lebanon officially took effect. Displaced individuals began returning to most areas across Lebanon, including Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Bekaa Valley, and Tyre. However, access remains prohibited to regions still under Israeli military occupation in southern Lebanon. Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued a warning to residents of southern villages, advising against returning until the Israeli military grants permission.

According to the agreement text released in Lebanon, commentators see it as a set of terms dictated by Israel. The deal represents a temporary truce and a 60-day trial period during which Hezbollah fighters are expected to withdraw, and its military infrastructure is to be dismantled by the Lebanese army. The agreement also imposes restrictions on arms transfers across the border to Hezbollah. In exchange, the text vaguely commits Israel to withdraw its forces from the south within two months, offering no detailed guarantees.

Lebanese commentators view the primary positive aspect of the agreement as halting the destruction and loss of life that persisted until the very last moment.

Currently, there is a sense of general relief in Lebanon at the end of the devastating war. However, priorities are shifting towards the next steps—whether related to implementing the agreement with its unclear points or addressing domestic issues, such as reshaping governance structures, which remain ambiguous at this stage.
 






Battlefield Developments in Lebanon

Amid discussions of an imminent ceasefire in Lebanon, Israeli warplanes launched a series of simultaneous, intense airstrikes targeting various areas in Beirut’s southern suburbs. These attacks followed warnings from Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee. The Israeli military announced it had conducted rapid strikes against 20 "terrorist targets" within 120 seconds, using eight fighter jets.

The strikes reportedly targeted seven sites associated with Hezbollah’s financial management and storage operations, including leadership headquarters and branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan association, which the Israeli military claims Hezbollah uses to collect and store funds for military purposes. The military warned of further attacks on additional branches of the association, alleging they house Iranian funds and other revenue streams used to finance Hezbollah's activities. Areas such as Noueiri, Mazraa, Hamra, and Mar Elias in Beirut, along with villages and towns in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa region, were heavily bombarded. Cities like Tyre and Sidon were also struck. Meanwhile, clashes reportedly continued in several border towns and villages in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military stated it is actively targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and claimed to have killed the commander of Hezbollah's coastal operations unit.

Hezbollah, in turn, continued targeting Israeli troop concentrations in southern Lebanese villages and northern Israel. The group also reported resisting Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon and launching rocket attacks on northern Israel. According to Hezbollah's statements, its fighters destroyed over 50 Israeli Merkava tanks during 52 days of Israeli advances in southern Lebanon, using anti-armor missiles.



Political Developments in Lebanon

 
On Tuesday, international attention centered on the prospect of a ceasefire in Lebanon, with key statements including:

  • Josep Borrell, EU Foreign Policy Chief, stated that Israel's concerns have been fully addressed and there is no justification for not reaching a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.
  • The White House announced that President Joe Biden remains committed to working toward a ceasefire in Lebanon. A statement noted progress in diplomatic negotiations and affirmed continued efforts toward this goal.
  • Axios reported, citing a senior Israeli official, that President Biden is expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday evening, with implementation anticipated by Wednesday morning.
  • US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, stated that implementing UN Resolution 1701 would allow Israel to return to its borders and prevent Hezbollah from posing a threat. He added, "I will not discuss the contents of the ceasefire agreement before it is announced by Israel and Lebanon."
  • Israel's Public Broadcaster reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the agreement with Lebanon after receiving American guarantees for the provision of restricted weapons to Israel.
  • Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Israel will not tolerate any violations of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. He warned that any terrorist organization or attempts to arm them, as well as weapons smuggling to Hezbollah, would be targeted.
  • Reuters, citing an Israeli government spokesperson, reported that the agreement with Lebanon ensures Israel’s freedom to act against Hezbollah's threats and provides a safe return for Israelis in the north to their homes.
  • G7 Foreign Ministers increased pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, stating, "Now is the right time for a diplomatic resolution."

On the Lebanese side:

  • Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib announced Lebanon’s plan to deploy 5,000 troops in the south as part of the ceasefire agreement. He expressed hope for an agreement by Tuesday night, adding, "The United States may play a role in rebuilding infrastructure in the south." He concluded, "We cannot stop the resistance as long as there is occupation."
  • Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram expressed cautious optimism, stating, "The atmosphere is positive, and we are hopeful, but cautiously so. Lebanon has done its part."
  • The Democratic Gathering Delegation, following a meeting with Bishop Elias Audeh, emphasized that the priority is a ceasefire, the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, and adhering to the Taif Agreement as a political cornerstone for the post-war phase.
  • A Lebanese government source told Al Jazeera that ministers have been notified to prepare for a cabinet session on Wednesday morning to approve the ceasefire agreement, conditional on Israel’s acceptance of the proposed terms. The source stressed that UN Resolution 1701 remains the sole framework for the ceasefire agreement.