A Region on Fire
Issue 57 - November 23, 2024
Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant: A Rolling Snowball
The arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are spreading rapidly, like a snowball gaining momentum.
Many European countries have said they will follow the court's decisions because they come from an international body. Some Arab countries and nations in the developing world also support these decisions. Meanwhile, the United States, Hungary, and Germany remain uncertain.
The world has been deeply divided since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, and this division continues. Israel’s strong rejection of the court’s decisions suggests that it plans to make this issue a main focus of its diplomatic efforts in the coming months. It aims to push the global divide to its limits, using "anti-Semitism" as an excuse and taking advantage of Europe's historical guilt. This strategy turns that guilt into a cover for its violations of international law and its disregard for global institutions, starting with the United Nations and extending to the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. Israel seeks to strengthen its international immunity and avoid punishment.
The conflict in Palestine, in both Gaza and the West Bank, as well as in Lebanon, might turn into a global confrontation over the current world order. It’s becoming a battle to defend human rights, international institutions, and especially justice systems. This could be the start of a violent, new version of the "Clash of Civilizations."
Field Developments in Lebanon
On Friday, the Israeli army issued evacuation orders in several areas of Lebanon and launched a new wave of airstrikes after a day of heavy casualties. They evacuated multiple villages in southern Lebanon and neighborhoods in Beirut's southern suburbs, which were then hit by intense airstrikes. Since Thursday morning, over 20 airstrikes targeted Beirut's southern suburbs, with heavy bombing continuing in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa region. The Israeli army said the strikes were aimed at Hezbollah's command centers and military sites, following U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Israel for ceasefire talks.
In the past two days, there have been several Israeli incursions across different fronts, achieving breaches in multiple areas.
The Public Health Emergency Operations Center under the Ministry of Public Health issued a statement announcing that the Israeli army continued targeting medics and medical facilities in the south, adding to documented war crimes. For the second day in a row, the Israeli military targeted a team from the Islamic Health Society - Civil Defense, resulting in the deaths of three paramedics and the injury of three others.
Hezbollah announced it had launched rocket attacks on the Israeli early-warning site at Mount Hermon in the occupied Golan Heights, as well as targeting Israeli military bases and troop movements along the edges of border towns in southern Lebanon. It also continued rocket barrages into northern Israel. The Israeli Home Front Command reported sirens sounding in Haifa Bay and Kiryat, confirming that five rockets had been launched from Lebanon towards Haifa Bay, some of which were intercepted. Israeli emergency services reported that three people were taken to Rambam Hospital with injuries caused by a stampede as they rushed to shelters in Haifa and Kiryat. The Israeli military also reported that eight soldiers were wounded over the past 24 hours in battles in southern Lebanon.
LBC channel, citing two government sources, reported that four Italian soldiers were injured in an attack on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) headquarters in the town of Shama in southern Lebanon. One of the sources stated that "four Italian soldiers sustained minor injuries and their lives are not in danger," adding that Hezbollah might be responsible for the shelling.
Amid the ongoing Israeli escalation in Lebanon, there have been reports of "suspicious" threatening calls reaching citizens’ phones in various parts of Lebanon. Following security operations in several areas of Sidon District and the evacuation of a building in the Beqaa town of Taalabaya, citizens reported receiving threatening calls in parts of Beirut and its surroundings, including areas considered safe and outside Israel's target zones, such as Burj Abi Haidar, Raouche, Furn El Chebbak, Dekwaneh, and Mar Roukoz.
These calls caused panic among Beirut residents, particularly since many neighborhoods host displaced people and shelter centers in public schools. A circulated video showed the state of fear accompanying the evacuation of a building in Beirut’s Raouche area after one of its residents received a threatening call.
Based on the Public Health Ministry’s Report from 22/11/2024:
- In the past 24 hours, 62 people were killed and 111 injured. The total number since the start of the assault stands at 3645 dead and 15355 wounded.
- According to the World Health Organization, one in ten hospitals has ceased operations or reduced services amid continued attacks on healthcare and staff. Approximately 330 healthcare workers have been killed in Lebanon since October 8 of last year. The death toll includes 231 children and 2697 women among the injured.
Humanitarian Response
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has warned of the widespread feelings of uncertainty and fear as the war continues. A UNHCR official emphasized the need to ensure equal access to shelter for all displaced individuals, especially refugees who were already in a very vulnerable situation before this crisis.
- The total number of displaced individuals has reached 1,237,842, with 190,102 currently in shelter centers and 1,047,740 outside these centers.
- There are 1,177 approved shelter centers, including 720 educational and health institutions and 976 maximum-capacity centers.
- As of September 23, 2024, the General Security registered the the crossing of 390,656 Syrian citizens and 234,242 Lebanese citizens into Syrian territory.
- The government has allocated $10 million to purchase diesel fuel for the shelter centers.
Political Developments in Lebanon
American sources have indicated that gaps remain in the negotiations between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah. Despite this, the same sources noted that the parties are close to reaching an agreement that could be finalized in the coming days.
The Israeli magazine "Epoch" reported that the talks between U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz have seen significant progress.
However, more work is needed to finalize the agreement. The magazine added that the United States plans to provide Israel with a letter of guarantees, allowing it to take action against "immediate threats" that may arise from Lebanese territory. However, discussions are ongoing regarding the possibility of targeting arms transfers to Hezbollah within Lebanon.
The talks between Hochstein and Israeli officials have led to progress on forming an international committee to oversee the agreement’s implementation. This committee is expected to include representatives from the United States, France, and Britain, as well as Arab countries like Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE. Today, Israel expressed opposition to France’s involvement in the monitoring committee responsible for implementing Resolution 1701. Channel 12 reported that Israel rejects any French role in the settlement with Lebanon due to the French President Emmanuel Macron’s administration's stance, which Israel views as anti-Israeli.
Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces Executive Committee, stated that no one can marginalize the Shia community, emphasizing that it is a founding group of Lebanon and remains a guarantor for everyone within the Lebanese Constitution.
Gaza
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that this year has seen the highest number of aid worker deaths, with 281 killed in the occupied Palestinian territories, including Gaza, making it the deadliest conflict for the UN.
Ten pro-Palestinian groups have asked a Dutch court to stop weapon exports to Israel and trade with Israeli settlements, citing heavy civilian casualties in Gaza. They argue that as a signatory to the 1948 Genocide Convention, the Netherlands must take reasonable steps to prevent genocide.
Gaza’s health system remains a target, with Kamal Adwan Hospital bombed for the second day without warning, injuring a doctor and several patients. The World Health Organization called for a halt to hostilities near the hospital and for safe access for aid, as its oxygen system has failed due to the strikes.
Gaza’s Civil Defense has begun evacuating residents from the northern Gaza Strip, reporting 2,300 dead or missing since the start of Israel’s operation in the area. Fuel shortages are also a major challenge for rescue teams.
West Bank
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced a halt to the issuance of administrative detention orders for Jewish settlers accused of attacking Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. Such orders are rarely issued by Israeli Defense Ministers, but Katz, known for his hardline right-wing views, is the first to openly refuse administrative detention orders against settlers.
On Friday, the Israeli army raided the city of Jenin, its refugee camp, and several other areas in the northern and southern West Bank, arresting three Palestinians. Meanwhile, settlers attacked residents of a village in the southern Hebron region.
On the same day, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, accompanied by thousands of settlers, entered the Ibrahimi Mosque in the city of Hebron in the southern occupied West Bank. Ben Gvir and the settlers performed Jewish rituals inside the mosque.
Sudan
The World Food Programme (WFP) announced a significant increase in its operations across Sudan as part of efforts to expand aid to millions in the most conflict-affected and isolated areas. Over 700 trucks carrying emergency food assistance are on their way to communities across the country, including 14 "hotspots" facing severe food insecurity and the threat of famine. According to the WFP's Regional Director for East Africa, hunger in Sudan ranks among the world's worst hunger crises, with nearly 4.7 million children under five, pregnant women, and nursing mothers suffering from acute malnutrition.
The WFP highlighted that ongoing fighting around the capital of North Darfur, Al-Fashir, combined with impassable roads due to the rainy season from June to September, disrupted food aid deliveries for several months.
International Developments
Israel's Position on the War in Lebanon: According to Yedioth Ahronoth, citing a military official, Israel wants to end the war in Lebanon but sees no need to rush towards a settlement.
- Israel's Response to U.S. Mediation: Al-Hadath reported that Israel informed U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein of its rejection to link the disputed border issue with Lebanon to a ceasefire agreement.
International Criminal Court (ICC) Ruling Reactions:
- Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Lebanon welcomed the ICC's decision, stating that it restores international legitimacy and the concept of justice, emphasizing that it marks a significant step toward achieving justice and condemns Israel's crimes against civilians. The ministry noted that the era of impunity for such crimes has ended.
- U.S. Government's Position: Both the outgoing U.S. administration under Joe Biden and the elected administration led by Donald Trump have firmly rejected the ICC's decision against Netanyahu and Gallant.
- Germany's Response: The German government stated it would carefully review the arrest warrants issued by the ICC for Netanyahu and Gallant, with spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit expressing difficulty in imagining that such arrests would occur on this basis.
- Slovenia: The Slovenian Prime Minister confirmed that Slovenia would comply with the arrest warrants issued by the ICC against Israeli and Hamas leaders.
- Denmark's Commitment: The Danish Foreign Ministry reiterated its commitment to ICC decisions, stating that any suspicion of war crimes must be prosecuted.
- Cyprus: Reuters reported that Cyprus is considering the ICC's arrest warrants, noting that such decisions are binding.
- Hungary's Position: The Hungarian Prime Minister announced plans to invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for a visit to Hungary.
- Italy's Response: The Italian Prime Minister revealed that the G7 foreign ministers would discuss the ICC's arrest warrants during their meeting near Rome on Monday and Tuesday.
- Russia's View: The Kremlin ruled out that the ICC's decision would contribute to a settlement in the Middle East.
- Iran's Reaction: The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard hailed the ICC's ruling, describing it as a victory for the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements.
- Financial Times' Analysis: The Financial Times described the ICC's decision as a dramatic escalation in legal actions against Israel over its war in Gaza, marking the first such ruling against a Western-backed official. The decision is expected to reinforce the sense that Israel is facing increasing international isolation due to its actions in Gaza.
- Support from Arab States: Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Arab League expressed their support for the ICC's decision.
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