A Region on Fire
Issue 54 - November 19, 2024
Negotiations Without Negotiators!
There's talk of progress in the ceasefire negotiations, especially in Lebanon, where only a few details are still being discussed. But where does this optimism come from? The Palestinian negotiator's location is unknown after Hamas offices in Doha were unofficially closed, and Qatar stopped its mediation. In Lebanon, talks are limited to the Speaker of Parliament, who is holding indirect discussions with Hezbollah. So, when will Lebanon itself join the negotiations?
In Lebanon, many are asking for the government and constitutional institutions to take a role. They also want Parliament to be informed about what's being discussed, as the Speaker is currently handling everything alone. This leaves Lebanon’s officials and people out of the process.
In both Gaza and Lebanon, the victims are being left out of the negotiations. The agreements being made might end up hurting them all over again.
Battlefield Developments in Lebanon
Israeli warplanes continued bombing Lebanon, especially in the villages of Nabatieh, Tyre, and Bint Jbeil, causing heavy damage to buildings, shops, and homes. There were casualties, including martyrs and injured people. Southern villages like Aita al-Shaab and Bint Jbeil were also heavily shelled.
Fighting continues in the eastern and western regions, while the Israeli army is advancing in its second ground phase to surround Bint Jbeil. They are trying to move from Maroun al-Ras and Aytaroun towards Ainata and Bint Jbeil, while Hezbollah targets Israeli forces there. Israeli forces are also pushing towards the Khiam Detention Center, where heavy fighting is happening, especially in Shama, a border village overseeing towns in northern Israel. Artillery is focusing on villages near Shama.
The Bekaa Valley and towns in southern Beirut, including Shiyah, were hit by Israeli airstrikes, with two people killed in the Shiyah attack. In the afternoon, Israel carried out seven airstrikes on the Al-Hosh area in Tyre.
Hezbollah announced it attacked an Israeli paratrooper training base in Karmiel and continued launching rockets at northern Israel. They reported over 110 Israeli soldiers killed and more than 1,050 injured since October 1, 2024.
Israel reported 10 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel on Tuesday morning, some intercepted and others hitting open areas. Israeli media said five soldiers were injured, two critically, in a drone strike on a military site in the morning.
Political Developments in Lebanon
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut on Tuesday amid reports that Lebanon and Hezbollah had agreed to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire, according to the Lebanese news agency. He is expected to travel to Israel on Wednesday. Hochstein stated that there is a "real opportunity" to end the war between Hezbollah and Israel, adding that the decision to reach a ceasefire is "within our reach."
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat that "the situation is good, initially," and explained that what remains are "some details." He mentioned that a representative from his side and one from the U.S. are discussing technical details, which will be settled before moving on to the next phase, which will include Hochstein's departure for Israel. Berri confirmed that the U.S. is responsible for securing guarantees regarding the Israeli position.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with the U.S. envoy and reaffirmed that the government's priority is to secure a ceasefire and allow displaced people to return to their villages and towns. There were also positive reports from the meeting between the U.S. envoy and Army Commander Joseph Aoun, who discussed the army's readiness to deploy in the south.
Hezbollah's media relations announced the postponement of a scheduled speech by the group's Secretary-General, Naeem Qassem, citing international pressure conveyed by France to the Lebanese government. The delay was requested because Qassem’s speech, regardless of its content, could affect the delicate and final stage of the negotiations.
Lebanon also filed a new complaint to the UN Security Council regarding Israeli attacks on Lebanon between November 2 and 11, 2024. The complaint detailed violations and attacks by Israel since Lebanon’s previous complaint at the beginning of November.
Humanitarian Response in Lebanon
The administration of Tebnine Governmental Hospital announced that its operations continued after the Israeli airstrike near the hospital. They confirmed that the staff are safe, and the damage was limited to material losses.
UNICEF reported that more than 200 children have been killed and 1,100 injured in Lebanon over the past two months.
Gaza
Israel continued its massacres and the siege on northern Gaza for the 46th consecutive day. The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza reported that in the past 24 hours, Israel committed three massacres against families in Gaza, resulting in 50 martyrs and 110 injured, who were brought to hospitals. This raises the total death toll in Gaza to 43,972 martyrs and 104,008 injured since October 7, 2023.
A spokesperson for UNRWA in Gaza said that Israel is restricting the humanitarian response to the needs of the region. Dr. Hossam Abu Safieh, Director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, stated, "Every day since the massacre began in northern Gaza, the situation has worsened. The health system is still devastated, and we are providing services below the minimum standard." He also confirmed the lack of medical resources in the northern region and at Kamal Adwan Hospital, noting that Israel continues to reject allowing medical teams with surgical specialties to enter northern Gaza.
The Washington Post reported that relief organizations stated that organized gangs are stealing aid in Gaza and operating freely in areas controlled by the Israeli army, with looting becoming the biggest obstacle to distributing aid in southern Gaza. In a related development, the Gaza Government Media Office announced that the Israeli army is coordinating with some gangs to steal aid entering the region.
Jerusalem: Mosque Demolition
Israeli authorities demolished the Al-Shiyah Mosque in the Jabal al-Mukabber neighborhood of East Jerusalem, claiming it was "unauthorized construction."
Additionally, Israeli forces opened fire on a Palestinian whom they claimed attempted to carry out a stabbing attack against soldiers at the Shuafat checkpoint north of occupied Jerusalem.
International Developments
An Israeli newspaper revealed that the Biden administration intends to present a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council opposing Israel's control over the occupied West Bank, as Israel's presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, including the Old City, violates international law.
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, leader of the "State Camp" party, stated that any agreement with Lebanon that does not include real security for Israel and freedom of movement within Lebanon would be a gift to Hezbollah.
UNIFIL announced that Argentina had withdrawn three soldiers from its peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, noting that its ability to carry out monitoring tasks in the region is now "severely limited" due to the ongoing conflict, which has damaged part of its infrastructure.
The U.S. National Security Advisor announced that Lebanon and Israel are both willing to reach a ceasefire agreement in the near future.
Bloomberg reported that Amos Hochstein will travel to Tel Aviv after the progress made in Lebanon.
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, stated that speeding up the election of a Lebanese president is the key to all solutions and confirmed that Saudi Arabia stands by Lebanon and is committed to its stability.
A statement from the Saudi Cabinet emphasized the danger of extremist Israeli statements regarding the occupation of the West Bank and how they undermine peace efforts.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced that Hamas's political office in Doha has not been permanently closed, adding that the leaders of the Hamas negotiating team are currently not in Doha and are moving between different capitals.
Turkish President Erdoğan stated that Israel will pay for the genocide it is committing in Gaza, and for this reason, Turkey has joined South Africa’s case before the International Court of Justice.
The Iraqi Prime Minister emphasized that Iraq rejects entering the war while maintaining its principled stance to end it and seek aid for the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples.
The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Iran has the right to respond to the recent Israeli attack, stressing that the response will be timely, measured, and appropriate, and will not be rushed or lenient.
The Guardian reported a UNICEF spokesperson in Palestine stating that children are regularly killed or injured in the West Bank, often by live ammunition.
