A Region on Fire
Issue 53 - November 18, 2024
Hochstein-Berri Negotiations: A Wheel of Fortune or Russian Roulette?
The ceasefire situation in Lebanon and Gaza has been shifting constantly. In less than 24 hours, there was optimism about U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Beirut on Tuesday, following a positive response from Speaker Nabih Berri to the U.S. proposal. But then, the visit was delayed as Lebanon asked for clarifications. Later, the visit was confirmed again, and Lebanon seemed to accept the U.S. plan. The exact details and conditions are not officially clear, with different versions in the media.
Meanwhile, violence is increasing in the south and Beirut, with Israel showing no signs of backing down from its goals.
This rise in tension is happening as the new U.S. administration takes a tough stance. The new Republican Senate leader said he would support a law to sanction International Criminal Court judges if they issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu or other Israeli officials. In Europe, there is another debate. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell, whose term ends soon, wants to stop talks with Israel to pressure them to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. But many EU countries with far-right governments oppose this, in line with President-elect Trump's views.
Gaza
The head of UNRWA said there is no alternative to their work in Gaza and the West Bank if Israel decides to ban their activities. He emphasized, "There is no backup plan in the UN because no other agency can do what we do." He added, "No UN agency can replace us in providing education to hundreds of thousands of children. Without UNRWA, many children will lose their right to education."
The UN's humanitarian office (OCHA) reported that over 65,000 Palestinians in northern Gaza are living in terrible conditions due to Israeli airstrikes and a lack of basic supplies.
UN Security Council members have urged more aid for Gaza, warning that the situation is getting worse.
Gaza’s Ministry of Health stated that since October 7, 2023, 43,922 Palestinians have been killed and 103,898 injured by Israeli attacks.
Battlefield Updates in Lebanon
By Sunday, November 17, the Israeli offensive had caused 3,516 deaths and 14,929 injuries.
The Lebanese News Agency reported that 26 Lebanese were killed in Israeli airstrikes on towns in southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Nabatiyeh. Israel's attacks on Nabatiyeh were some of the heaviest so far, with four major strikes hitting residential and commercial areas, resulting in 15 deaths and many injuries.
An Israeli airstrike on an Islamic Health Organization center in Arabsalim killed six medics. Ten more strikes in central Nabatiyeh led to eight more deaths.
Israeli forces used incendiary shells while trying to advance toward Khiam, leading to clashes with Hezbollah fighters.
On Monday evening, Israel bombed the Zoqaq al-Blat area in Beirut, killing five and injuring 24. The strike was near government buildings and embassies.
Hezbollah shelled Israeli troops in Khiam and northern Israel. Israeli media reported heavy rocket fire from Lebanon, damaging homes and cars in Kiryat Shmona.
Later, rockets hit near a shopping center east of Tel Aviv, causing four explosions. Parts of Tel Aviv lost power, and Ben Gurion Airport briefly shut down.Bottom of Form
Political Developments in Lebanon
Prime Minister Najib Mikati told Al-Araby TV that Lebanon is committed to implementing Resolution 1701, particularly south of the Litani River. He stressed the importance of strengthening the presence of the Lebanese Army in the south and ensuring that only the state's weapons are allowed there. He said Lebanon's response to the American proposal was positive, but some points need further discussion.
Reports indicate that Hezbollah has given its comments on the American draft to Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to visit Beirut for talks on a ceasefire in Lebanon.
UNESCO has decided to grant enhanced protection to 34 Lebanese archaeological sites against Israeli attacks, following a request from the Lebanese Ministry of Culture.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs instructed Lebanon's permanent mission to the UN in New York to file a complaint with the Security Council in response to repeated Israeli attacks on the Lebanese Army.
Sudan
On Monday, Russia used its veto power to block a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Sudan and the protection of civilians. The resolution, drafted by the UK and Sierra Leone, urged all parties to "immediately stop hostilities and engage in good-faith dialogue to agree on steps to de-escalate the conflict, aiming for a nationwide ceasefire." It also called on both sides to "fully implement the 2023 commitments to protect civilians, end and prevent conflict-related sexual violence, and allow rapid, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access throughout Sudan."
The draft resolution also urged member states to avoid "external interference that fuels conflict and instability" and called on all parties to respect the arms embargo on Darfur.
The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed Russia's use of the veto against the British proposal on Sudan.
International Developments
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for stopping diplomatic talks with Israel to pressure its government. He also wants to ban imports from Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law. Dutch Foreign Minister Kasper Veldkamp disagreed, saying the EU should keep talks with Israel due to tensions in the Middle East. The talks with Israel follow the EU-Israel partnership agreement from 2000.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said the Prime Minister of Qatar discussed the Gaza situation and ways to reduce tensions in Lebanon with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister.
Israeli sources told Channel "Kan" that Israel agreed to negotiate disputed points along the border with Lebanon.
US President Biden said, "We will push for a ceasefire that ensures Israel’s security, frees hostages, and ends Palestinian suffering."
The US State Department said it is working on an agreement between Lebanon and Israel, with both sides giving feedback on the proposal.
UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland, said the region is at a dangerous crossroads after a year of war. He called for immediate action to change the current dangerous situation. He mentioned ongoing Israeli military operations in Palestinian cities and refugee camps, leading to gunfire exchanges with militants, and rising violence from Palestinian attacks and settlers.
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