The
Future of Gaza in a Geopolitical Context - Sari Hanafi
The arrival of President Trump to power and his “flooding the zone” declarations, including ethnic cleansing against Gazans, has made ending the Israeli genocide even more complicated. The Israeli colonial practices, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank, are not merely localized conflicts between Israel and Palestinian resistance factions; rather, they are embedded within a complex web of neoliberal and real estate interests, as well as geopolitical struggles that shape the region and extend far beyond its borders.
This article examines the war on Gaza from a geopolitical perspective, arguing that any sustainable solution must account for the longstanding injustice against the Palestinian people and manage the strategic interests of global and regional powers. While moral imperatives and humanitarian concerns remain central to the discourse, the role of geopolitics in perpetuating and potentially resolving the conflict cannot be overstated.
Gaza as a Geopolitical Battleground
Gaza’s significance extends beyond its borders due to its position at the heart of regional and international struggles. The enclave is not merely a piece of land under siege but a symbol of resistance, an object of strategic control, and a flashpoint for broader geopolitical rivalries. The war on Gaza cannot be understood in isolation from the larger contest for influence among global and regional powers, particularly the United States, the European Union, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the Gulf States.
The United States has historically played a decisive role in shielding Israel diplomatically while providing it with extensive military and financial support. The European Union remains divided on the issue. While some member states advocate for stronger sanctions on Israel due to its violations of international law, others prioritize maintaining economic and security ties. The lack of a unified European position weakens its ability to mediate effectively. Iran’s support for Palestinian armed groups is not just ideological but also strategic, aimed at extending its influence in the Levant. Meanwhile, Turkey has sought to balance its role as a regional power advocating for Palestinian rights with its economic relations with Israel, a relationship that was recently halted.
The Situation in 2025
Let us first examine the situation in the second month of 2025 without using the vocabulary of victory or defeat—terms that lack analytical meaning when the struggle for justice is protracted and experiences fluctuations. Today, Palestinian armed resistance in both Palestine and Lebanon has been weakened under the Israeli-American (and to a lesser extent European) war alliance. However, this weakness has been partially offset by the power of resistance demonstrated by massive student and activist movements worldwide. Their voices challenge the genocide-enabling silence of their governments and mainstream media. Palestine remains a litmus test for global progressive social movements, just as opposition to the brutality of the Assad regime remains a litmus test for the Arab left.
Iran has also been weakened following its setbacks in Syria and its limited response to Israeli aggression—a lose-lose situation for Iran, and consequently for Lebanon. While Israel has used the so-called peace process as a mechanism for pacifying Palestinians while expanding Jewish settlements (as noted by Khaled Hroub), Iran has relied on a "war process"—a process without real war—by using its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq to carry out limited military actions. Most of the missiles launched by Iran have been intercepted by American and Israeli defense systems, rendering them largely ineffective. The real war, however, has been waged against the Arab Spring, not only by Iran but also by other Arab and Western powers.
The Impact of Syria’s Political Shift
Developments in Syria will inevitably have repercussions for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. As Ibn Khaldun wrote, "Dictators bring invaders." The liberation of Syria offers a promising vision of the potential for Arab nations to overthrow dictatorial regimes through mass mobilization. Strengthening Syria could create a healthier political environment for managing the Arab-Israeli conflict while awaiting a just solution. Political change in Syria has already played a role in facilitating the election of a Lebanese president and the designation of a prime minister. Democratic governance in Syria and Lebanon will enhance the political and diplomatic resilience of both countries, enabling them to play a more effective role in countering Israeli expansionism and shaping the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Geopolitical Implications for Palestine
Several geopolitical factors will shape the future of the Palestinian situation:
- Normalization:
The Gulf states and Morocco have shifted their stance over the years.
While they historically supported Palestinian resistance, they have
increasingly pursued normalization with Israel, as exemplified by the
Abraham Accords. However, the brutality of the recent war on Gaza has
forced these states to reconsider their diplomatic calculations,
especially as public opinion remains strongly pro-Palestinian. One of the
outcomes of October 7, 2023, has been the halting of creeping
normalization between Israel and the Arab world. After Trump’s ethnic
cleansing declarations, Saudi Arabia made it clear that normalization is
contingent upon a two-state solution. Turkey, a crucial player, has
distanced itself from Israel, reaffirming its support for Palestine.
Popular pressure in Morocco against normalization could also undermine its
future.
- Lifting
the Siege and Reconstruction of Gaza: While funding for
Gaza’s reconstruction will be available, no major donor will commit
resources without a clear political framework for resolving the
Arab-Israeli conflict. Unfortunately, a serious start to this process may
take considerable time.
- The
West Bank: Colonial expansion in the West Bank will persist
unless serious international pressure is applied to force Israel to halt
its illegal settlement activities.
- Palestinian
Political Unity: Internal divisions among Palestinians weaken
their ability to negotiate and resist external pressures. A reconciliation
process between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, backed by regional
actors, could help create a unified front for Palestinian self-determination.
The Palestinian Authority remains in a state of inertia, and without a
viable alternative, its role will continue to diminish.
- Israel’s International Standing: Israel’s global reputation will continue to deteriorate, particularly in Europe. There is growing hope that international solidarity movements and various governments will take responsibility for ending Israeli apartheid and colonial violence. In September 2024, 124 countries voted in favor of a United Nations General Assembly resolution setting a deadline for Israel to end its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory, while only 14 countries opposed it.
Conclusion
The war on Gaza is a manifestation of entrenched geopolitical struggles that cannot be resolved without addressing the one-state/two-state solution and the interests of regional and global powers. While international actors have historically played a role in perpetuating the conflict, they also hold the keys to its resolution. The challenge lies in shifting from a paradigm of military dominance and strategic manipulation to one of genuine engagement and conflict resolution.
Ultimately, Gaza’s fate will be determined by both the resilience and resistance of its people and the willingness of international actors to prioritize justice over geopolitical expediency. A just and lasting peace cannot be dictated by power alone—it must be rooted in a commitment to human dignity, self-determination, and the right of Palestinians to live free from occupation and war.
Is
Syria’s liberation from tyranny the beginning of the third wave of the Arab
Spring? This can only be confirmed if Syrians succeed in building a civil state
grounded in the rule of law, institutions, and democracy. Such a transformation
would not only benefit Syria but also have profound implications for the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the broader Arab world.
