A Region on Fire
Issue 55 - November 20, 2024
Negotiation and fighting are happening side by side.
In the past 24 hours, an Israeli airstrike hit neighborhoods in Palmyra, central Syria, killing 41 people and injuring over fifty. The target was a residence for fighters from different nationalities and their families.
Hezbollah confirmed that five of its fighters died in the strike. This escalation against pro-Iran militias coincides with growing chances of a military strike on Iraqi militias, following recent drone attacks on Israel. Some airlines have canceled flights to Iraq, and the U.S. has said it has run out of ways to pressure Israel to stop a strike, which Iraqi officials now expect at any time.
This is all part of the ongoing indirect conflict between Israel and Iran, which is also playing out in Lebanon. Negotiations are happening between Hezbollah, represented by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri—while the Prime Minister remains in the background—and the U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein. This is part of the larger U.S.-Iran power struggle, with Europe getting involved through a negative message to Iran via the International Atomic Energy Agency. This raises questions about the point of the talks on Lebanon. Hochstein's recent comments in Beirut, before he went to Tel Aviv, were less optimistic, hinting that the outcome might depend on Netanyahu’s stance and what agreements can be made before Trump takes office. This period almost matches the potential trial phase of a ceasefire in Lebanon, if a deal is reached. Hochstein’s meetings in Tel Aviv today (Thursday) might offer some answers, but things are still unclear and open-ended.
Battlefield Developments in Lebanon
Israeli airstrikes continued to hit several towns and villages in southern Lebanon. Fierce clashes broke out between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces on the outskirts of Kfar Shouba in southern Lebanon.
According to Sky News, heavy fighting is also taking place in and around the town of Khiam between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, along with intense airstrikes and artillery shelling targeting its northern and western areas. Additionally, there are ongoing heavy clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters from the town of Teir Harfa and Shamaa toward Al-Bayadah, as Israel attempts to advance and gain control of the town. If successful, this move would allow the Israeli army to cut off the road between Naqoura and Tyre by positioning forces on the Shamaa Hill.
The Lebanese army announced that one of its soldiers died from injuries after an Israeli strike hit a military vehicle on the Burj Al-Moulouk-Qleiaa road in the south. Earlier on Tuesday, the Lebanese army reported the death of three soldiers in an Israeli attack on a military post in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah has intensified its attacks on northern Israel, stating that its fighters targeted Israeli soldiers with guided missiles near the town of Marjayoun in southern Lebanon last night. These soldiers were trying to evacuate their wounded comrades, who had been hit by similar missiles. Hezbollah confirmed that it inflicted casualties. The Israeli army announced the death of one soldier and injuries to three others from a drone strike, as well as acknowledging that 11 soldiers were wounded in one day of fighting in Lebanon. On Wednesday morning, the Israeli army spokesperson reported detecting three drones launched from Lebanon, triggering alarms in Haifa Bay, Galilee, and numerous towns in northern Israel.
Israeli media outlets mentioned that a drone fell in a military camp in western Galilee, causing damage to a synagogue inside.
On Wednesday, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported 3,558 deaths and 15,123 injuries since the beginning of the aggression.
Political Developments in Lebanon
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein ended his visit to Lebanon with a statement after meeting with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. He said there was positive progress in the negotiations with Berri and announced that he would travel from Beirut to Israel for similar discussions, aiming to find a possible solution. This statement was the political conclusion of his visit, though he continued meetings on Wednesday (yesterday), including with former Lebanese President Michel Aoun and former leader of the Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt. No political statements were issued from these meetings.
Speaker Nabih Berri told the newspaper "An-Nahar" that he was pleased with the progress in the ceasefire talks with Hochstein, but emphasized that the true test lies in implementation. Berri noted that Hochstein is making a final effort before the Republicans take power. He mentioned receiving positive signals from Hochstein, with ongoing communication between them. Berri added that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to the terms Lebanon reached with Hochstein, it would be a significant step forward. He stated, “If a ceasefire is achieved, it will make electing a president easier and be the end of our troubles.”
In a televised statement that was supposed to air yesterday, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General said that Israel attacked the heart of Beirut and should expect a response in central Tel Aviv. He mentioned that Hezbollah had previously accepted the Biden-Macron proposal to end the war but Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated. He emphasized that Hezbollah has fully recovered in all areas since the assassination. Regarding negotiations, he stated, “The battlefield will decide, whether through ground confrontations or launching missiles deep into Israel.” He added, “We are negotiating for a complete end to the aggression and to preserve Lebanese sovereignty. Our remarks align with the Lebanese state, which presented them to the U.S. envoy, and detailed discussions were held.” He reaffirmed Hezbollah's commitment to the “trinity of the army, the people, and the resistance” in governing Lebanon and promised to work with the state and any countries assisting in reconstruction. He also pledged that Hezbollah would support the presidential election according to the constitution, with all political moves staying within the framework of the Taif Agreement.
The Lebanese Ministry of Information and press unions condemned threats made by Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee against Arab media. They stated that these threats target all media outlets and journalists, contradict human rights and democracy, and promote a culture of terror. They called for a broad international, UN, and Arab response to counter this dangerous and unprecedented trend in times of war and peace.
Draft Ceasefire Agreement
The Israeli newspaper "Yedioth Ahronoth" published a draft of the ceasefire agreement currently being negotiated between Lebanon and Israel, following the visit of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon. According to the newspaper, the draft includes a clause for a 60-day trial ceasefire, during which Hezbollah would withdraw to the other side of the Litani River. After this withdrawal, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL forces would be deployed in southern Lebanon.
The draft also outlines that the Israeli army would withdraw from southern Lebanon. Additionally, the agreement proposes the creation of a monitoring committee made up of several countries, including the UK, Germany, France, and others. Another clause grants Israel the freedom to take action if Hezbollah violates the agreement, according to "Yedioth Ahronoth."
International Developments
The United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Janine Hennis-Plasschaert, stated that Lebanon is facing a humanitarian crisis of catastrophic proportions. She emphasized that the framework to end the conflict already exists—UN Resolution 1701. She made it clear that this time, the parties must not pick and choose which parts of the resolution to implement while ignoring others. Both sides cannot afford another period of half-hearted implementation under a facade of calm, as that would only lead to another war.
France's Foreign Minister said that there is a real opportunity to reach a permanent ceasefire in Lebanon, urging both Israel and Lebanon to seize this moment.
According to the Israeli newspaper "Yedioth Ahronoth," U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s plan for ending the conflict is acceptable to all members of Israel’s security and political cabinet, except for Ben Gvir.
The Israeli news site "Walla" reported that Israel assured the Biden administration in an official message sent last week that it does not intend to forcibly displace Palestinians from northern Gaza.
Gaza
The UN Security Council held a session to vote on a resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, along with the release of all prisoners. The resolution, drafted by the ten non-permanent members of the Council, aimed to pressure Israel to halt the conflict. However, the United States used its veto to block the resolution. The Palestinian representative stated that the veto against the ceasefire sends a message to Israel that it can continue with its plans. Israel's ambassador to the UN criticized the resolution, labeling it "flawed" and insisting that Israel "will not stop fighting until all captives are returned."
In terms of positions, the UK voted in favor of a ceasefire in Gaza and called for the release of hostages. Russia's representative claimed that the U.S. has made itself responsible for the deaths of civilians in Gaza. Meanwhile, China's representative said that the U.S. veto shattered the hopes of Gaza's residents and that history would not forget this.
According to "Yedioth Ahronoth," the Israeli government is close to imposing military rule in Gaza, signaling a major change in its military and settlement strategies. The newspaper highlighted that, with the government's strict approach and the current developments on the ground, it is clear that significant moves towards enforcing military control in Gaza are underway.
On the 411th day of the war in Gaza, medical sources reported 36 deaths from Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip since the early hours of Wednesday, 19 of them in the northern part of the area. According to the Ministry of Health, the death toll from the Israeli assault has risen to 43,985, with 104,092 injured.
The Director of Kamal Adwan Hospital stated that medical and emergency teams are unable to respond to distress calls from those trapped under bombardment in Beit Lahia. Al-Awda Hospital reported that Israeli shelling targeted the area surrounding the hospital in the Tel Al-Zaatar region of northern Gaza.
West Bank
On Wednesday, Israeli forces arrested at least 15 Palestinians from the occupied West Bank, including a child, a woman, and several former prisoners.
According to the Palestinian Authority’s Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners' Club, over 11,700 Palestinians have been detained from the West Bank, including Jerusalem, since the start of the ongoing war.
On World Children’s Day, both organizations reported that Israel has arrested at least 770 children from the West Bank since the war on Gaza began. The statement highlighted that these children have faced severe beatings, various threats, and even summary executions during arrest raids. The groups also noted that the rise in child detentions is linked to a significant increase in administrative detentions, which have reached a historic high of 4,343 cases. In addition, children from Gaza continue to be detained and labeled as "unlawful combatants."
Syria
The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that an Israeli airstrike targeted residential buildings and an industrial area in the city of Palmyra, central Syria, resulting in 41 deaths and over 50 injuries.
In another report, the Syrian Network for Human Rights confirmed that at least 30,293 Syrian children have been killed since March 2011, including 225 children who died due to torture. Around 5,300 children are still detained or forcibly disappeared. This was stated in the network’s 13th annual report on violations against children in Syria, marking World Children’s Day.
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