A Region on Fire
Issue 52 - November 17, 2024
Cautious Progress in Negotiations with Lebanon Leads to Intense Escalation
The media in recent days points to progress in ceasefire talks in Lebanon. At the same time, Israel's military actions have sharply escalated. In the last two days, Israeli airstrikes targeted the Lebanese army and hit key areas in Beirut, including Ras al-Nabaa and Mar Elias. Ground forces are also putting pressure on towns from Khiam to Bint Jbeil and Shamaa, along the coastal road between Naqoura and Tyre. Israeli military sources continue to speak of ongoing attacks as routine. This cycle includes warnings to evacuate, followed by bombings both day and night, across Lebanon.
In Lebanon, many are calling for transparency in the ceasefire talks. They want authorized institutions to handle negotiations, rather than the current approach.
The real dispute is about what happens after the ceasefire. Key issues include the future of Hezbollah's weapons and how power will be shared. These differences are tied to debates over Resolution 1701, how it should be enforced, and its links to other international resolutions like 1056 and 1680. For Hezbollah and Iran, these are the main sticking points.
Gaza: Over 100 Killed in One Day
On Sunday, over 100 people were killed in Gaza from a series of Israeli airstrikes. The deadliest was in northern Gaza, where 70 people died in a single strike in Beit Lahia.
Gaza’s Government Media Office said these attacks are part of the ongoing 408-day genocide. The strikes also coincide with the collapse of Gaza's health system, particularly in the north, where four hospitals are now out of service.
Ongoing Raids in West Bank Cities
The Israeli army raided several areas in the West Bank, leading to clashes in various locations. At the same time, settlers attacked Palestinians.
Battlefield Updates in Lebanon
Since Sunday morning, the Israeli army has launched heavy airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. Each attack was preceded by warnings to residents. Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the strikes targeted Hezbollah’s command centers and facilities.
An Israeli airstrike hit the Ba'ath Party’s central command in Ras al-Nabaa, targeting Hezbollah’s PR Chief, Mohammad Afif. Later, an Israeli drone strike in Mar Elias Street targeted a car linked to Hezbollah leader Mohammad Madi. The attack also hit an electronics store, causing a large fire, killing one person, and injuring nine—two critically.
Israeli strikes continued in the south and Bekaa regions. In the south, they hit a Lebanese army post in Mari, killing three soldiers. The Israeli army is advancing on strategic areas in Khiam, Bint Jbeil, and Shamaa, linked to the second phase of their ground operations.
UNIFIL reported that its patrol was fired upon in Maarakeh, southern Lebanon, without injuries. The source of the fire was not a governmental actor.
Hezbollah said its fighters are in direct combat with Israeli soldiers on Shamaa's eastern edge. Intense clashes are also happening on the southern edge of Khiam.
Political Developments in Lebanon
There has been no official statement, but sources, including the Speaker of the Parliament, suggest a positive initial response to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, there are still questions about how the plan will be implemented and monitored under Resolution 1701. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Lebanon on Tuesday before heading to Israel. Expectations for his visit have been lowered, and the negotiations, are happening behind closed doors with a small group of people, excluding Lebanese institutions. These are effectively indirect talks with Hezbollah. Sources say Hezbollah has sent its response to the Speaker, who is expected to inform the U.S. envoy by Monday or Tuesday.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai appealed to God to stir the consciences of those obstructing the presidential election and called on MPs to attend parliament and elect a president to restore the functioning of government. He emphasized, "No one can replace the president."
MP Melhem Khalaf, standing by a large fire caused by Israeli shelling in Beirut, urged MPs to immediately go to parliament to elect a president so the country's institutions can function during this dangerous time.
Agriculture Minister Abbas al-Haj Hassan said that 70% of Lebanon’s agricultural sector has been affected. Thousands of hectares were destroyed, and 65,000 olive trees were burned due to Israeli attacks with white phosphorus and cluster bombs. He added that over 3,220 dunams of land were burned, and 7,200 dunams were damaged in southern Lebanon, with more than 60,000 olive trees affected.
Humanitarian Response in Lebanon
An Emirati aid plane arrived at Damascus International Airport, carrying 10 tons of medical, relief, and health supplies for those displaced from Lebanon.
International Developments
Pope Francis called for an international investigation into whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned about the serious impact of attempts to block UNRWA activities, including education services.
Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the world to force Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza and hold those responsible for breaking international law accountable.
Israeli Channel 13 reported that the head of Mossad will present new ceasefire proposals for Gaza in a meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today.
Israeli public broadcaster announced that a law has been passed banning Palestinian Authority flags at institutions funded by the state.
Haaretz newspaper reported that Israeli reservists are under extreme pressure, with 54% having served more than 100 days since the war began, and a third of Israeli military deaths being reservists. This has caused widespread anger among soldiers and their families.
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