What Indicators Should Tell Us: Climate Justice Between Commitment and Impact

A Reading of the Sustainable Development Goal Indicators, the Paris Agreement, and Jordan’s Third Nationally Determined Contribution NDCs 3.0

Climate progress is not measured by the number of pledges, plans, and reports, but by our ability to trace a complete pathway, That pathway runs from commitment to decision and budget, then to outcomes and the groups affected by them, and finally to the avenues for objection and redress available in cases of failure or harm, If any link in this chain is broken, the commitment appears present in documents yet absent from people’s lives, and this cannot be considered progress, however great the announced efforts may be, This is what defines what indicators should tell us: not what was announced, but what was achieved, and for whom.

Accountability begins by establishing what states have committed to, in what form, and within what implementation timeframes, This matters because the Paris Agreement combines different types of obligations, It requires states to prepare, communicate, and maintain their nationally determined contributions and to pursue domestic measures to achieve them, It also requires successive contributions to represent a progression and the highest possible ambition [1, Article 4], However, it does not guarantee every targeted outcome, and its compliance mechanism remains facilitative and non-punitive [1, Article 15], The statement “the state is committed to the Paris Agreement” is therefore insufficient to explain what can be demanded of a state, Rather, it is necessary to examine what each obligation requires in terms of action, reporting, or progress.

This understanding is reinforced by the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice issued on 23 July 2025, The Court affirmed that states must exercise due diligence to protect the climate system, and that their obligations under the Paris Agreement do not permit them to describe their efforts as entirely voluntary and beyond scrutiny [3, paras, 295–300], It also linked environmental protection to the rights to life, health, water, food, and housing [3, para, 393], Although the opinion did not determine the responsibility of any particular state, it establishes that climate commitments cannot be separated from the duty to act on the basis of science, due diligence, and rights.

After the commitment comes the test that is often overlooked: the decision that turned it into action, and the budget that made its implementation possible through projects whose impact on people can be measured, Announcing an adaptation or emission-reduction target does not, on its own, demonstrate the existence of a funded programme, a responsible entity, and a timeline, Likewise, announcing a total financing figure does not reveal where the funds were spent, under what conditions, or whether they reached those for whom they were designed, Without this link, it is difficult to distinguish between an implementable policy and a political signal that does not change the course of spending.

Jordan’s third nationally determined contribution is a clear example of this stage, Following the submission of its vision in September 2025 [4], its update is being finalized, The update includes a mitigation portfolio of 41 measures across energy, transport, industry, waste, and agriculture, as well as six adaptation priority sectors: water; agriculture and food; health; biodiversity; urban planning and infrastructure; and cultural heritage and tourism, Yet the document is not yet an implementation programme, The financing strategy is still being prepared, the action plan has not yet been developed, and some conditional measures have not been quantified, Demands should therefore now focus on building the bridge between the document and the budget, and on its timing and degree of transparency, A commitment to expand early warning systems for flash floods, for example, is not fulfilled by adopting a plan, It also requires allocations for monitoring, communications, and maintenance; an entity to operate the system; and training that enables residents to act when a warning is issued, In this way, the budget becomes part of the evidence of commitment.

Then come the outcomes, meaning what has actually changed relative to the baseline, These require data on coverage, quality, and continuity, not a figure that records spending or the number of activities, The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix may rise while questions of electricity costs, employment, and the distribution of the transition’s benefits remain open, The target of generating 40% of electricity from renewable sources by 2035 is typically presented alongside promises of energy security, cleaner air, and green investment, These are expected benefits, not realised ones, and only measurement can settle the difference between them and actual results.

Here, the limits and the potential of indicators emerge together, The Sustainable Development Goal indicators help track some of these dimensions without replacing national measurement systems, Indicator 13,2,1 tracks the number of countries reporting under the Paris Agreement, while indicator 13,2,2 addresses total greenhouse gas emissions [2], The first monitors reporting, not emission reductions; the second monitors the volume of emissions, not the policies, financing, and social impacts that produced them, What indicators should tell us is therefore not achieved by updating the global framework alone, but by linking it to national implementation data and to the outcomes that matter to people.

In adaptation, Jordan is moving to link national monitoring to the global framework through 328 indicator entries in the annexes of its updated contribution, mapped to the Belém adaptation indicators adopted at COP30, This is an important step, However, the number of indicators does not by itself constitute a measurement system unless each is accompanied by a baseline, a data source, a monitoring entity, and a reporting frequency, Otherwise, it remains an item in an annex rather than an instrument of accountability.

A reading of outcomes is incomplete without knowing who was affected by them, A national average may conceal disparities between governorates, between urban and rural areas, and between groups by income, gender, age, and disability, An adaptation project may record a public benefit while neighbourhoods exposed to risk remain outside its scope, An energy project may reduce emissions while some residents bear the cost in land, livelihoods, or utility bills.

It is precisely here that the relationship between indicators and climate justice is determined, Indicators strengthen climate justice when they reveal the distribution of benefits and burdens, and obscure it when they conceal inequality within a single national figure, The distribution of Jordan’s adaptation indicators reveals this challenge, Poverty, livelihoods, and social vulnerability, described as a cross-cutting theme running through all sectors, receive only six indicators out of 328, compared with 79 for water and 74 for biodiversity, If the social dimension is embedded in other indicators, this must be visible and verifiable, not assumed.

In this way, the language of development and the language of rights complement each other, Development indicators show the general direction, such as improved services, reduced risk, and the arrival of financing, A rights-based approach explains how this improvement was produced and for whom, in terms of access to information, participation before decisions are finalised, and the determination of responsibility in cases of failure or harm, Measuring outcomes without examining their distribution may conceal exclusion, just as examining procedures without tracking outcomes may leave commitments without impact, From this standpoint, the existence of gender action plans, just transition principles, and a matrix for screening the impact of measures on decent work and livelihoods deserves to be welcomed, This holds provided that they are applied before financing, not after, and that their results are published.

For this reason, avenues for objection and redress are part of the quality of climate action, not a procedure that follows it, Public participation does not mean a meeting to record attendance, It means information published in a timely manner and in an understandable format, a genuine opportunity to modify decisions, and a channel for submitting complaints and seeking remedy for harm, While Articles 12 and 13 of the Paris Agreement promote participation, access to information, and transparency [1], access to justice and remedies requires national legal and institutional instruments that go beyond the climate reporting system,

From this perspective, COP31 gains its significance, Its two presidencies have oriented the conference toward implementation and trackable progress [7], The Global Climate Action Agenda addresses the tracking of results, barriers, and progress indicators [9], while the second Global Stocktake is formally launched [8], The expectation is that the conference will make “implementation” verifiable, through clear targets, timelines, and responsibilities, and through reports and a global stocktake that reveal what was implemented, what was achieved, and who benefited or was harmed, This does not mean adopting a single comprehensive indicator or establishing a new international redress mechanism, Rather, it means connecting what already exists in the Paris Agreement with transparent and reviewable national procedures.

The Jordanian moment appears favourable for this, The contribution’s financing strategy and action plan have not yet been finalised, and the political climate allows them to be built on foundations of accountability from the outset, This means a clear cost and funding source for each measure, a responsible entity and a timeline, indicators with baselines disaggregated by group, and published justice screening results before financing is approved, It also means a genuine consultation process in which local communities participate, as those closest to implementation and to monitoring impact.

In this sense, an indicator is not the conclusion of a report, but a link in a chain of demand-driven accountability, That chain begins with a specific commitment, passes through decision, budget, outcome, and the distribution of impact, and ends with participation, objection, and redress, What indicators should ultimately tell us is the distance between commitment and impact: what was achieved, for whom, at what cost, and how it can be corrected, Only then can decision-makers explain what they have achieved, and people verify it and demand that its course be corrected, This is the difference between progress that is announced and progress that people see in their lives and have the means to claim.

References

1. United Nations, (2015), Paris Agreement, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Articles 4, 12, 13 and 15.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/paris_agreement_english_.pdf

2. United Nations Statistics Division, (n.d.), Global indicator framework for the Sustainable Development Goals: Goal 13, indicators 13.2.1 and 13.2.2.
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/indicators-list/

3. International Court of Justice, (2025, July 23), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change: Advisory Opinion, Paras. 295–300 and 393.
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/187/advisory-opinions

4. Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, (2025, September), NDC 3.0: A vision for ambition, integration and inclusive climate action, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-09/Jordan%20NDC%203.0%20Vision_final.pdf

5. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (2025, September 22), NDC Registry: Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, NDC 3.0.
https://unfccc.int/node/649916

6. Ministry of Environment of Jordan & UNDP Jordan, (2026, July 13), Ministry of Environment and UNDP Jordan strengthen national coordination to finalize Jordan’s NDC 3.0 update [Press release].
Ministry of Environment of Jordan – Press Release

7. COP31 Presidency of Negotiations and Host Presidency, (2026, May 20), Joint letter to Parties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
COP31 Joint Letter to Parties

8. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (2026), UN Climate Change quarterly update: Q3 2026.
UN Climate Change Quarterly Update – Q3 2026

9. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (2026), Global Climate Action at COP31.
Global Climate Action at COP31